Project completion time and variance for each activity
In the case of triple time estimates, the estimated completion time for each activity is computed as follows:
Expected completion time = Optimistic Time+4 ×Most likely time+Pessimistic Time6
Variance for each activity is given by the following formula:
= (Pessimistic Time-Optimistic Time)6)2
Total project completion time and critical path for the project
The total project completion time and the critical path are determined by constructing a project network diagram. In this case, we use the expected activity completion times as calculated above. The network diagram below uses the activity on the node method and indicates the duration of each activity, early start and finish times, late start and finish times as well as the activity float.
The longest of the three activity paths is path 3. Therefore, the critical path is 1-2-5-6-7 and the total project completion time is 80.5 days.
Probability
Determining the probability of completing the project in 40 days requires the determination of the standard deviation of the total project completion time. The standard deviation of eth project is the square root of the sum of variances of critical activities.
Total variance of critical activities = 2.78 + 3.36 + 9 + 25 + 1.78
= 41.92
Project’s standard deviation = 41.92 = 6.48
The probability of completing the project in 40 days can be determined using the normal distribution formula as follows:
Z = (Desired time- Mean completion time)Project's standard deviation
= (40- 80.5)6.48
= -6.25
P (Z = -6.25) < 0.00000001. There is no chance of completing the project within 40 days. The probability of doing so is very close to zero.
Definition of project management
Project management is the use of techniques and skills to run and complete a project to achieve its intended objectives (Collins, 2011). A project is a unique undertaking with specific objectives and it is carried out alongside the normal activities of an organization. A project has a sequence of coordinated activities. Each activity in a project has a start and finish date, and they determine the completion time of the project. Project activities are undertaken in a specific order (Collins, 2011). Project management ensures a project achieves its objectives. Project management techniques and skills are applied in project initiation, planning, implementation, among other phases of a project.
Requirements for project management
A project manager should have technical and analytical skills. These enable the manager to undertake competently activities such as project planning and control, among other activities. Besides, the manager must have excellent communication skills to enhance communication and coordination among various stakeholders. He/she must also have leadership and team building skills to ensure the formation of an effective project team.
Effects of changes in project scheduling
A change in scheduling project activities affects the cost and completion time of the project. If an activity is delayed beyond the latest start and finish times, it will affect the completion time of the entire project (Maylor, 2010). Additional costs are involved in shortening the duration of activities and that of the whole project. Besides, changes in scheduling also affect the allocation of limited resources.
Application of project management techniques
Projects help businesses in achieving their objectives such as expansion, the introduction of new products, among other goals. Projects are critical since they involve large investments. Project management techniques help project managers to implement projects successfully and improve organizational performance. Critical techniques include scheduling which ensures the project manager efficiently allocates limited resources to project tasks.
References
Collins, R. (2011). Project management. New York: Nova Science Publishers.
Maylor, H. (2010). Project management. Harlow, England: Financial Times Prentice Hall.
