The Name of Class
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The City and States where it is located
1. Analysis of findings
Research Question- Why is it a problem if the earth’s average temperature gets a little warmer?
1.1 Results
The average rising temperature can have vast impacts only by slight increase. The vast impact the average temperature can have can be shown with the average temperature in the last ice age, when the average temperatures were only around 5 degrees Celsius lower than today’s average temperatures. From the Figure 1 it is seen that the global average temperature, which combines the surface and ocean temperature have been on the rise and have reached the highest levels in the recent years. The warming is happening quicker as in the past and the temperatures are increasing in shorter time periods, which will impact all living beings on the planet. Estimation of the global mean surface temperature change differs based on the different scenarios and likely range of the average temperature rise during the year 2046 and 2065 is estimated at 0.4 to 2.6 degrees Celsius. The prediction of the increase in the average temperature for the year 2081 and 2100 are even greater and could increase from 0.3 to 4.8 degree Celsius (IPCC, 2014, pp. 60).
Figure 1 The prediction and scenarios of rising temperature
Source: IPCC, 2014, 3.
With the rising temperature more severe and frequent weather patterns will be seen, such as floods, droughts, storms, heat waves, fires with the drier areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter (Pilkey and Orrin, 2011, pp. 15-25). With the melting of ice the water supplies are reduced. The figure 2 shows the decreasing of ice in the last 25 years in the Northern Hemisphere. The decrease of ice is happening because of the increasing temperature on global and local levels, which is causing the disappearance of the ice and further contributes to the rising of the sea levels (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, n. p.). The ice is melting also on all continents, which is contributing to the scarce water resources worldwide. Glacier and preeminent snow, which are in some parts the only water resources are becoming scarce and will contribute to the issue of water scarcity and pose a risk to livelihood with disappearing of rivers and negative impact the agriculture, hydroelectric power production and tourism (International Hydrological Programme, 2011 pp. 9-10).
Figure 2 Decrease of ice in the last 25 years
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, n. p.
The increase of global average temperature in the future will negative impact the food production. The wheat, maize and rice are extremely vulnerable to the temperature change and the 2 degree Celsius could result in the inability of the plants to adapt. All in all some local benefits can be found. If the temperature increases to 4 or more degree Celsius above the 20th century levels along with the increased food demand the global risks of food security would emerge (IPCC, 2014, pp. 13). The regional crop yields and lack of water availability will present further risks (IPCC, 2014, pp. 72). Besides the plants various ecosystems are at risk by further warming. By adding one 1 degree Celsius or additional 2 degrees to the average temperatures between the periods of 1986 and 2005 the severe consequences are threatening the arctic sea animals, coral reefs and marine species. The biodiversity around the world along with the economy will be greatly impacted by one to two degrees average warming. With additional 1 degree Celsius the high risks of the extreme weather events will be seen all around the globe, such as heat waves, coastal flooding and heavy precipitation (IPCC, 2014, pp. 72)
The rising average temperature has a great impact on the whole ecosystem of the Earth. The rising of world average temperature has consequences in the rising sea levels, because of the melting sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers. With the high temperature, warming the atmosphere and oceans the water expansion results in the sea level rise, which makes the coastal certifies and areas prone to flooding and erosion (Pikey and Orrin, 2011, pp. 15-25). With the warming of around 1 to 3 degrees Celsius the irreversible sea level rise from an ice sheet loss will be seen (IPCC, 2014, pp. 72). The Figure 3 is presenting the global sea level rise from the year 1900 until the year 2010. The global sea level has risen by 0.19 meters and the sea level rise has been larger in this time period than in previous two millennia (IPCC, 2014, pp. 4). The future predictions of the sea level rise are based on the different projections of the average temperature and greenhouse gas emissions. The global sea level rise in the 21 century will exceed the rising sea level trend during the period of 1971 and 2010. “Sea level rise of 1 to 3 meters per degree of warming is projected if the warming is sustained for several millennia” (IPCC, 2014, pp. 1140). The scenarios of the global sea level rise and likely range for the time period between 2046 and 2065 are estimated at about 0.17 to 0.38 meters and between years 2081 and 2100 from 0.26 to 0.82 meters (IPCC, 2014, pp. 60).
Figure 1 The average global sea level rise
Source: IPCC, 2014, pp. 3.
The coastal areas will be vulnerable to flooding’s, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusions, shoreline relocation and settlement and will be exposed to the unpredicted weather patterns. Two thirds of the major cities are located in the coastal zones and by the end of this century from 147 to 216 million of people will live below the sea level or regular flood levels. The estimation of average temperature of 2 degrees Celsius would result in a rise of the sea levels for at least 6 meters above their current heights (Kahn, 2015, n. p.). The projections were made for the year 2030 and 2060 where from 625 million to 880 million and more than billion by the 2060 people will be living in the area of coastal zones worldwide which will be vulnerable to the erosion and tide rise. Most affected will be the developing countries and regions. This would result in vast migrations and displacement of people (Neumann, Nicholls and Vafeidis, 2015, n. p.). The figure four is presenting the most affected countries and the percentage of the population that will be affected by the flooding, which is the result of the melting the ice, ice glaciers and expending the sea which are the consequences of the average global warming. From the figure it is seen that more around 150 million of people will be at risks of chronic flooding in 84 years (Kahn, 2015, n. p.).
Figure 4 Population affected by the flooding by the year 2100
Source: Kahn, 2015, n. p.
1.2 Outcomes
The data shown is presenting the need to contain the rising average temperature under the 1 degree Celsius in order to avoid the severe negative impacts. The consequences are already seen and will further increase with the increasing average and local temperatures.
1.3 Recommendations
It is recommended that the nations, governments, national and international organization along with all individuals do all that is their power to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are increasing global average temperatures.
2. Conclusion
It has been shown that if the average temperatures increase a little they impact the whole earth’s ecosystems, from food security and production, to water scarcity, melting of ice and glaciers which results in the scarce water resources that further impacted the agriculture and overall economy with changed weather patters. The slight increase of the global average temperature can have drastically impact on the biodiversity with threatening various spices with increasing land and ocean temperatures and with the melting of ice. The increasing temperatures are causing the sea level rise with the ice and glacier melting and the ocean expansion and threatening the islands and coastal region where the majority of the world population resides. If the average temperatures get a little warmer from one degree Celsius forward the whole planet would be faced with the global climate consequences. The immediate actions are needed since if the emission of the greenhouse gas emissions and man-made contribution to the global climate change will not stop the predictions and estimations will result in loss of biodiversity, lost human lives and conditions the earth has not witnessed until this time.
3. Reference list
International Hydrological Programme, 2011. The Impact of Global Change on Water Resources: The Response of UNESCO’s International Hydrological Programme. [online] United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization. Available at: <http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0019/001922/192216e.pdf> [Accessed 9 May 2016].
IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. [online] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at: <http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/> [Accessed 9 May 2016].
Kahn, Brian, 2015. Sea Level Could Rise at Least 6 Meters. Scientific American, [online] Available at: <http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sea-level-could-rise-at-least-6-meters/> [Accessed 9 May 2016].
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2016. What has Been Happening to the Polar Bears in Recent Decades? [online] Available at <http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/essay_schliebe.html> [Accessed 9 May 2016].
Neumann, Barbara, Nicholls, J. Robert, Vafeidis, T. Athanasios, Zimmermann, Juliane, 2011. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding – A Global Assessment. Open access Journal, [online] Available at: < http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4367969/> [Accessed 9 May 2016].
Pikey, C. Keith and Orrin H. Pilkey, 2011. Global Climate Change: A Primer. London: Duke University Press.
