INTRODUCTION
It is the belief of most people that when stronger law enforcements are applied, it will help in getting the drugs off the market, thereby making the streets to become safe. However, the evidence that exists with the Drug Abuse Council challenges this belief. The council confirmed that an increase in the price of one bag of street heroin in any given month from $7 to $9, there would be an increase in the number of revenue-raising crimes from 11,000 per month to 12,000 per month due to heroin trade alone (Friedman 1).
AN OVERVIEW
PURPOSE OF THE MODEL
The purpose of this model is to carry out a test on whether an increase in the drug busts will in the short-run lead to an increase in the revenue-raising crimes. In order to effectively carry out this, this report considers the following boundaries. These are the list of components that surround the heroin trade case and that will be included in this paper:
This model will take a close examination of the theory that the rate of crime increases with respect to increase in the drug busts. This dynamic behavior does not consider the number of addicts and arrests in this report.
PROBLEM ARTICULATION
A drug bust is the seizure of drugs from the heroin’s local stock. The demand of heroin is constant in the short-run due to less involvement of the rehabilitation sectors in the matter and minor entrance of the new addicts. Heroin is an addictive drug, whose users will acquire regardless of its market price. The number of drug busts per month, thus drives the behaviour.Thus, due to heroin addiction, this report takes a look at the effect it has on the market when its components vary with the variations on the area of application.
DYNAMIC HYPOTHESIS
The hypothesis in heroin crime system is that the increase in the number of drug busts depletes the heroin stock. This low heroin stock will increase the price of heroin, so long as the demand remains constant. For the addicts to meet this high price, they involve themselves in crimes such as burglary in order to raise the revenue.
The increase in the heroin prices, which in turn increases the profit of the sellers, will thus lead to an increase in the heroin importation in that given area. When the importation increases, the heroin stock will increase, thus normalizing the price again.
MODELING PROCESS
The modelling process for the heroin-crime system includes the use of stock-and-flow diagrams that demonstrates the relationships of the components involved, together with the model itself. Figure 1 below shows the basic mechanisms in the stock-and-flow diagrams for the heroin-crime system.
Figure 1: stock-and-flow diagram for heroin-crime system. Source: Freidman report
A causal-loop for the heroin crime system is as shown in the diagram 2 below.
Figure 2: causal-loop diagram for heroin crime system. Source: Freidman report.
EXPLANATION OF CAUSAL LOOPS
In the above causal loops, the quantity of heroin in stock depends on the rate at which heroin is being used, the drug busts level and the rate of importation of the drug. Again, the price of heroin also depends on the quantity of heroin in stock. When the stock is much, the price will go high and vice versa. Still, the availability of the money to support the habit will reduce the revenue-raising crime and increase the demand for more heroins.
The polarity of these causal loops is that revenue raising crime rates increase even if there is availability of money to support the habit in the addicts. In this case, that causal loops above fails to be true. This can occur due to crime addiction, not necessarily for heroin satisfaction, but because the participants in the crime have turned it into their habit, though the initial of the onset of the crime was the demand for heroin drug (Langfield &Wirth1135-1150).
MODEL ASSUMPTIONS
When the price of heroin is normal, the amount of money needed by the addicted population can be framed in equation form as follows:
available amount of money for the habit=demand level of heroin x normal price x fraction of available not through crime
This model assumes that the population addicted to heroin only possesses a certain fraction of the required amount that would enable them to meet their addiction demand and be ‘high’. This will mean that the amount of money they require is more than the fraction they have and have acquired through other legal means. This lack will thus necessitate burglary in order to top up the lacking amount that would enable them to ‘quench their thirst’.
VALIDITY METHODS
The validity method used in this research is called internal validity. This type considers the possibility of other causes of the question in the study (Martyn 1). From the causal loops, it is noted that there can be other causes of revenue-raising crimes in the heroin addicts other than for their heroin satisfaction. This has been sited to be due to a habit developed due to the desire to continue with the crime, though it was initiated by the heroin addiction.
MODELS OF BEHAVIOR
These are the psychological factors leading to the adoption of a given behaviour change. In the case of the heroin addicts, there are possibilities of adapting this behavior. These include family frustrations, loss of parents through death, peer influence among others.
POLICY REVIEW
Policy changes recommendations
In order to change this habit of heroin addiction, I recommend that there should be global laws that prohibit the growing of heroin in any part of the world. This will eliminate the product from the market since most of the countries consider the trade to be illegal. Once the product is out of the market, the addicts should be taken to rehabilitation centers for a change in their habit.
Expected outcome of the policy
With this in place, the revenue-raising crimes that are initiated by heroin addiction will reduce drastically. Thus the above model shall have achieved its goal when the crime rates are seen to reduce.
Unintended consequences from the policies
Yes, the changes will most likely cause unintended consequences. These will result from the drug addicts themselves who will demand the heroin drug since their system cannot do without it, unless provided with an alternative. Also the drug dealers will be rendered bankrupt due to loss of market. Finally, the economy of the heroin producing countries will go down since they shall have lost their export product.
Time required for the policies
The time may vary since such a policy requires a meeting by all the heads of state in the world in order to come up with such an agreement. This research therefore gives it a period of one year given the urgency of the matter, but this may vary depending on what the United Nations considers to be urgent.
CONCLUSION
This report has endeavored to come up with the model that be used to monitor the effect of heroin trade in the market and how it can result into other social evils such as burglary in order for the addicts to raise the desired amount to meet their desire. The report has also provided possible policies to curb the trade and the expected reactions from the policies. I thus recommend the implementation of this report in order to achieve the desired change therein.
Works cited
Langfield-Smith, Kim& Wirth, Alfred. "Measuring differnces between cognitive maps." Journal
of operational research, 1992: 1135-1150.
Martyn, Shuttleworth. Types of validity.l8 Nov, 2009. Web. 18 Jan. 2017
Saul, Friedman. "When Heroin Supply cut, crime rises, says report." Boston Globe. 22 Apr,
1976. Web. 18 Jan. 2017
Appendix
HERE IS THE LINK USED
https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-ofsystem-dynamics/building.pdf
HERE IS THE ACTUAL MODEL FORM VENSIM
