Following the Napoleonic wars, there was a gentlemen’s agreement between both Britain and the French empire to largely stay out of one another’s way. Nevertheless, they still nearly came to blows on a number of occasions during the 19th century. Yet, the British and French Empires gradually came to see one another as potential allies, even if not as close friends. This relationship benefited both powers in very material ways. Both were concerned about the increasingly aggressive nature of Germany and the alliances it was forming, as well as the rising power of Russia under the Czar. This relationship as putative allies transformed into a more solid one with the signing of the Entente Cordiale between the two great powers. The following examines the state of the French empire and its relationship with the British Empire around the world as of 1920. If further projects the likely direction of that relationship after 1920.
Review of the French and British Relationship
As suggested above, the years between 1870 and 1900 saw a good deal of tension between the British and French empires. This was particularly the case with regard to African colonial expansion and ambitions. On several occasions, these contentious issues almost carried the two empires into war. Fortunately, diplomatic efforts by statesmen in both nations managed to avert this outcome.
A typical example of one of these disputes (and a particularly dangerous one) occurred in Sudan in 1898. Known as the Fashoda Incident, this event involved French troops attempting to lay claim to a part of Southern Sudan. All of this was part of what was referred to later as the “Scramble for Africa” (Lengel 2013). In this case, a British force arrived in the area, which forced the French to withdraw and left the British Empire in control. In this case, the French government recognized that it needed the British Empire in any future confrontation with Germany far more than it needed to seize part of Sudan. While this was humiliating and infuriating for the French, diplomacy and pragmatism decided the issue.
Still, during the colonial expansion of the 1870s-1880s, the French and British empires largely recognized and accepted one another’s spears of influence. There were even areas in which their interests and cooperation overlapped. For instance, while the Suez Canal was constructed by the French, by 1875 it was a joint French-British project. Both Britain and France viewed the canal as essential for their goal of maintaining their respective empires throughout Asia and Africa. In addition, the Revolt in Egypt in 1882 led to the British choosing to assist the French. The French government of the time was unwilling to do more than send a fleet to the coast of Egypt, so the British sent land forces. However, when the British set up a protectorate (something the French themselves had done only one year before in Tunisia, most French citizens were angered by this. However, this was soon followed in 1882 by the signing of an Anglo-French Convention, which serve the purpose of resolving territorial disputes in West Africa.
The Entente Cordiale
Around the turn-of-the-century, a feeling of greater interest and even respect and affection began to grow up between the citizens of France and Britain. Anglophile and Francophile societies blossomed, with the result that the British became enamored of French wines and food, while the French became equally fascinated with the English. All of this led directly to the aforementioned Entente Cordiale. The signing of this document represented an end to almost 1000 years of on and off conflict between the two nations.
Of course, all of these preparations by both the Germans and the British and French to form alliances laid the groundwork for one. Like a series of dominoes, the various treaties existing between Germany, Austria-Hungary, France, Britain, Russia and Belgium (as well as a host of other smaller nations) made the coming war almost inevitable. Without this alliance between Britain and France, the outcome of that war might have been very different.
The 1920 French Empire PESTLE Analysis
The 1920 French Empire SWOT Analysis
Below is a SWOT analysis of the French Empire as it exists in 1920. This analysis considers the strengths and weaknesses of the French Empire, as well as the opportunities open to it and threats that it faces.
Strengths
Moreover, the strength that France now enjoys sharply contrasts with the weakness of her enemies, and in particular Germany. Both Germany and Russia have suffered the most as a consequence of the war. Because of the effects of the war and the terms of the Treaty of Versailles, Germany is virtually bankrupt and would seemingly be unable to represent a major threat to France for generations. The indemnities that Germany has been forced to pay and the limitations placed upon its military expansion would seem to largely remove Germany as an immediate threat to France.
Weaknesses
Although France (as pointed out above) is in 1920 the greatest power in continental Europe, it has to be acknowledged that geopolitical situations are always in flux. Moreover, the strength of France is largely a relative strength. France is only strong because of the exceptional weakness of Germany and other nations in 1920. Should Germany find a means to escape from or avoid the limitations placed upon them by the Treaty of Versailles, France’s seeming strength might quickly appear less impressive.
Another weakness for France is that it is very much dependent upon the even more powerful British Empire. France had recognized decades before that it would be unable to win a major war in Europe without the assistance of Great Britain. Should another major threat to France appear on the horizon, the French Empire would again need the assistance of the British Empire. This puts France in the position where it must (of necessity) except decisions and positions by the British Empire that it might otherwise have objected to.
Another problem for the French is that their military (as large and powerful as it is) was unwilling to learn the most obvious lessons of the recent world war. One of these lessons was that static warfare (fortifications and trenches) are no longer viable in an age of aircraft, tanks and automatic weapons. Despite this, the French military seems very enamored of “invincible” fortifications.
Opportunities
Despite the above weaknesses, the French Empire does have certain opportunities at hand if it can seize them. For example, the fall of the old Ottoman Empire has created many opportunities in the Middle East for France. Under the 1916 Sykes-Picot, the old Ottoman Empire was dismembered a divided between France and Britain (Gee 2014). France obtained a number of new colonies and holdings, in the Levant. If it can hold onto these territories in the face of potential British opposition, considerable financial gains seem likely. Furthermore, the defeat of Germany has seems to have (for the moment) remove Germany as a factor in the colonial equation.
Finally, given that there will always be another war, French industry and technology are more than sufficient to allow it to create a modern Army, Navy and Air Force. Of course, this will require a considerable investment in terms of men, money and resources by the French government and the French people. It is possible that they might choose the previously mentioned defensive posture, assuming that it would be more effective and less expensive. This stands in contrast to the innovations the British Navy introduced during the war. On the other hand, the tactical abilities of the British Navy did not advance as quickly as its technical abilities (Mukunda 2010).
Following the defeat of the Germans by the allies, another opportunity for the French lies in the possibility of forming a closer relationship with the United States. While many in the United States are wary of foreign entanglements, a closer alliance with the United States might allow the French to distance themselves just a bit from their neighbor Great Britain. In this way, they might become less dependent upon the British in a number of areas. For example, under the terms of the Washington Naval Treaty the United States is the only nation in the world permitted to have as many naval vessels as Great Britain. However, the United States construction of what it had termed its “Great White Fleet” was actually more of a response to the rising threat of Japan in the Pacific than it was to anything going on in the Atlantic (Lenz 2008).
Threats
Despite its current highly favorable situation, there are a number of threats to the French Empire and to France itself on the horizon. One potential threat to France is a rebuilt, revitalized and rearmed Germany. While this seems unlikely in 1920, it also seems unlikely that the German people will passively accept second tier status in Europe. While the current Weimar Republic seems harmless enough, it is at this time only a year old and its long-term stability and effectiveness are uncertain. Ensuring that Germany does not rearm is essential for the safety of the French people.
Another threat that France faces in the future is a result of the Washington Naval Treaty. This treaty places significant limits on the numbers, types and sizes (based on weight) of ships that the French Navy (and other maybes) can build. But while Britain is allowed to have up to 525,000 tons worth of capital ships and 135,000 tons worth of aircraft carriers, France is limited to 175,000 tons and 60,000 tons (respectively). As a result, France is much more limited in its naval capabilities than Britain. In fact, in the future if the British wish to interfere with French naval activities anywhere in the world, it seems unlikely that there is a great deal the French could do about it. On the other hand, even the British Navy did have limitations placed upon it which (some suggest) will have a very negative effect in the future (Redford 2011).
Moreover, given that French colonies are dependent upon French naval vessels (or other friendships) to carry French troops to those colonies, even French military activities on land elsewhere in the world will be limited to those activities that the British are willing to accept. This in a sense terms France into a junior partner in the relationship with Great Britain.
In conclusion, the French Empire in 1920 seems in many ways to be in an ideal position. Certainly, relative to its immediate neighbors France is in a position of considerable strength, possessing many advantages over them both militarily and economically. At the same time, there are certain weaknesses in France’s position at this time that cannot be simply ignored. It is dependent upon the British Empire for support in any future war and is itself reluctant to make the monetary sacrifice necessary to create a French military capable of standing on its own. On the other hand, there are opportunities available for the French if they can only take advantage of them. Certainly, France has the capabilities and knowledge to do this if it wishes. Of course, a failure to take advantage of these opportunities or address its inherent weaknesses could leave France in a position where it is unable to deal with new threats, such as a cooling of its relationship with Great Britain or a revival of German military might. Only the future will show what path the French will choose to take.
References
Gee, J. (2014). The Ottoman Empire and World War I: It Could All Have Been Very Different.. Washington Report On Middle East Affairs, 33(7), 24-26.
Lengel, E. G. (2013). The Brink of War at Fashoda. Military History, 30(4), 21.
Lenz, L. (2008)., Power and policy: America's first steps to superpower 1889-1922. New York: Algora Pub.
Mukunda, G. (2010). We Cannot Go On: Disruptive Innovation and the First World War Royal Navy. Security Studies, 19(1), 124-159
Redford, D. (2011). Collective Security and Internal Dissent: The Navy League's Attempts to Develop a New Policy towards British Naval Power between 1919 and the 1922 Washington Naval Treaty. History, 96(321), 48-67.
