Population dynamics is a central area of study in most humanities. Demographic trends seem to indicate that the global population would increase in the future. However, some critics argue that this may not be the case. Is the world population going to increase or decrease in the future? A close analysis of the present trends and the future projections indicate that the demographic trends would decline significantly.
The first major reason why the population would decrease is the birth rate. Since the industrial revolution, the world population has been growing steadily. However, according to Friedman (2015), the population explosion has since ended, and the entire world is experiencing a decline in birthrates. Friedman argues that for the world's people to remain in a steady growth, it must maintain a birthrate of 2.1. However, available data indicates that in most of the developed countries, the birthrate has fallen below 2.1, and also the developing nations are experiencing a significant drop in their birth rates. Friedman attributes this phenomenon to the high level of urbanization since the economic value of children shifted from offering unpaid labor in the firms to the massive consumer of industrials goods.
It becomes imperative that the population would pursue school in larger numbers than in the past. As a result, the modern parents would have information on the consequences of having many children and therefore, would rationally decide not to have many. For instance, the parents are under the obligation to support the children in school, and this may go up to to the mid-twenties. Since this needs a lot of resources, parents would choose to have fewer children or none at all. Moreover, the initial desires to have many children who can survive natural calamities like diseases, famine, and war is no longer practical because these disasters are under control (Nelson, 2013). The governments are more stable than before, and the availability of medicine is almost certain in most parts of the world. The cumulative effect of this is a slow but steady decline in the entire global population.
On top of the declining birthrate and change of the role of children in the economy, there are significant disruptions that prohibit population growth. Some countries like Syria and Somalia have been engaging ending in the war for some time now. If this persists in the future, the people die in large number due to the war, diseases, and also move to other countries that may not offer them the basic needs for one to support big families. Warring nations may not have enough time to build their economy and therefore, are also subject to high mortality rates. The effects of globalization, especially westernization also influence the perceptions that people develop towards lifestyle and, therefore, more people would want to have fewer children. Moreover, globalization helps in keeping poverty low as people in third world countries gain information on the effects of having many children (Leete, 2002).
Despite the above facts, the population has to grow steadily for some years before the decline begins. According to Jones and Anderson (2015), the world population is set to hit 9.7 billion people by 2050. The trend arises because developing nations with high birth rates are compensating the low birthrates in the developed countries. After 2050, the decline would set in since most of the developing countries would have advanced significantly.
In a nutshell, the declining birthrate occasioned by high education, change of the role of children in the economy, and the ever-present wars and associated economic and social disruption, the world population would decline. However, the immediate future would experience a population growth.
References
Friedman G. (2015). Population Decline and the Great Economic Reversal. Stratfor. Stratfor February 17, 2015. Retrieved on January 16, 2017, from https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/population-decline-and-great-economic-reversal
Jones S., & Anderson M. (2015). Global population set to hit 9.7 billion people by 2050 despite fall in fertility. The Guardian. The Guardian, July 29, 2015. Retrieved on January 16, 2017, from https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/jul/29/un-world- population-prospects-the-2015-revision-9-7-billion-2050-fertility
Leete, R. (2002). Does Globalization Adversely Affect Population and Poverty? The Views of Five Panelists. Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 40, No. 3, December 2002. Retrieved on January 16, from http://netedu.xauat.edu.cn/sykc/hjx/content/ckzl/4/8.pdf
Nelson, R. (2013). Overcrowding? Nah — the World’s Population May Actually Be Declining. Time. Time January 11, 2013. Retrieved on January 16, 2016 from http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/01/11/overcrowding-nah-the-worlds-population-may- actually-be-declining/
