Dear Mr. Obama,
Looking at the Illinois state exit polls for the 2008 election, I believe your chances are very strong. 99% of black men are willing to vote for you. Given this large minority vote, and the support they have for you, it is not unwise to capitalize on that and appeal to what they might want in a president. However, older blacks seem to like McCain more - Blacks 45 and over basically voted 51-52% for McCain. This might be due to their air of fiscal conservativism, or a general distrust of your more left-leaning policies. Appealing to the minority corner might help swing that vote your way.
You have a significant portion of the female vote - 64% of women in Illinois voted for you. With the help of your forward-thinking, energetic and sensitive mindset, you should be able to secure a greater number of women with your vote. You have a large portion of the youth vote as well, with 71% of 18-29 year olds voting for you. Your platform of change has helped to inspire young people to vote, as there is what seems to be a real liberal in the running for the presidency. Push forward with progressive policies in your campaigning and you should do fine.
You are evenly divided with McCain on white college graduates, with a 50-50 vote straight down the line. Pushing for a greater youth vote, and hammering on left leaning policies, will do the trick there. Naturally, the White Republican vote seems to elude you right now, with 84% voting for McCain. There may not be much to convince them, due to your socially progressive policies, but whatever you can do to lean slightly conservatively might bring them over to your side. 68% of the people who voted believe that the economy is the most important issue facing this country today. With that in mind, you must make sure to make the economy a large issue in your campaign, and take steps to bring forth economic solutions to the financial crisis.
Geographically, you have a wide majority in Chicago and the surrounding suburbs, but the rest of the state is more evenly divided. 51% of Southern Illinoisans voted for John McCain, for example; it may be important to gain their confidence. Getting the rural vote from Southern Illinois will help gain a complete victory in Illinois, rather than the majority from left-leaning Chicago.
One strength that you have is that people are much more confident in your Vice Presidential candidate than McCain's; 73% of people believe that Joe Biden is qualified to be president if necessary, but 69% people do not think Sarah Palin is up to the task. With this in mind, simply advertise Biden's professional career without resorting to outright slander on Palin. She is doing well enough at that already.
Finally, you most certainly do not have the white Evangelical/born-again Christian vote, as 63% of them voted for McCain. However, they only constitute 22% of the target audience, so their influence is not a complete and utter death sentence. In short, I believe that, if you consider all of these factors, you will have a good chance of winning the votes in Illinois.
Best of luck in the coming election.
Sincerely,
References
Illinois - 2008 Election Exit Poll Results. (2008). CBSNews, Retrieved from
http://oaktree2.cbsnews.com/election2008/exit.shtml?state=IL&race=P&jurisdiction=0.
