The race for governor and senate is tighter in Minnesota than expected. Traditionally, Minnesota has been a democratic state. In the 2010 primaries, the incumbent democratic governor Mark Dayton won a very closely contested race with the republican Tom Emmer. The deciding margin was only 0.42% of the total votes cast. Mark Dayton is vying again for governor and this time he is running against the republican Jeff Johnson and the independent Hannah Nicollet.
The senate race is also heating up with democrat Al Franken against republican Mike McFadden. In 2010, the incumbent Al Franken defeated republican Norm Coleman with the narrowest of margins. Before 1944, Minnesota had never elected a democratic senator but since then, the democrats formed an alliance with the farmer labor party and created a dominant political force. Minnesota has been largely democrat ever since with a democratic president elected by the state ever since 1972.
The difference in the two parties has somewhat narrowed in the recent past and both the gubernatorial race and the senate race are expected to be very tight. However, the democrat nominees are still expected to carry the day. Polling information suggests that currently, the democrat nominees hold an advantage when compared to their rivals.
The democratic race is expected to be between democrat Dayton and republican Johnson. Polling results show that Dayton holds an advantage over Johnson. A summary of polling results show that Dayton commands 47% of the votes over Johnson’s 40%. The margin for victory is placed at 7% of the total votes. Polls were done and the website calculates an average of the polls. This method is usually very accurate. The results for these polls were sourced from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/mn/minnesota_governor_johnson_vs_dayton-3574.html.
In the senate race, online polling suggests that senator Franken holds a lead over his opponent McFadden. A total of 18 surveys have been analyzed and compared with each other to determine the likely winners in the race. From the total, an average is done. the average shows that Franken holds a 50% share followed by McFadden who holds a 40% share of the vote. This is polling data and it tends to be very accurate. The average spread from all the surveys produces a margin of 10% of the total votes cast. This difference would be very difficult for the republican candidate to recover with the elections looming. These results are sourced from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mn/minnesota_senate_mcfadden_vs_franken-3902.html.
I expect the democrat nominees to carry the day. This is because they command huge margins going into the actual elections. Although the republicans have gained some ground recently, it will not be enough to cause an upset. I expect the democrat governor Dayton to win 45% of the votes against Johnson’s 40%. The senate race will be less tight but still the democrat senator Franken will carry the day with 48% of the votes against McFadden’s 39%.
The website used to get this information is RealClearPolitics.com. this website is dedicated entirely to politics and has a good record of accomplishment of covering political stories, especially elections. The website does not conduct its own surveys and relies on polls done by other people. the site then analyzes these polls and performs an average of its own. This is considered to be very accurate and this is the reason the site was chosen for the resources.
Work Cited
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/mn/minnesota_governor_johnson_vs_dayton-3574.html.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/mn/minnesota_senate_mcfadden_vs_franken-3902.html.
http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/2014-senate-elections.php
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/11/03/1341497/-Minnesota-Elections-2014-Final-Predictions-II-Statewide-and-Congress#
