So long as the dynamics of international relations are changing, then the complexities of domestic politics will continue to change. While there are many trends in the evolution of comparative politics, one of the most far reaching concerns the potential consequences of the dissolution of the European Union, or, at the very least, the continued erosion of its political solidarity. I believe this issue will have drastic consequences for the next five years of comparative politics for three reasons: firstly, that the EU is a major political actor and any changes in the EU will have international consequences; secondly, the EU serves as an example for other kinds of regionalization and undermining the fundamental reference point of regionalization will undermine the value of future projects; thirdly, that the fracturing of political solidarity in the EU already implies that solid political coalitions and unions need further attention. In this essay, I will address each point sequentially in order to conceptually justify my argument.
Comparative politics as a field, though often concerning itself with domestic politics, is increasingly being determined by the status of the global political landscape. Domestic strategies have to take into account an increasingly interconnected world, and an interconnected world means an exponential rise in uncertainty. This uncertainty tends to be dealt with by brokerage that creates trust, or by emulating past political experiments. The advent of the TPP and TTIP have created serious discussion about the future of state politics. If the deal would go through, a common economic space would exist which would require rethinking the relationship not only between people and their government, but of governments and the corporations that attend to the people. Such a deal rests, however, on the trust and authority that can be placed in the continued existence of the EU. Any hesitation in the EU means hesitation in the trade deal with implies consequences for the international market, which is increasingly hedging its bets on the basis of expectations for this massive trade deal.
For half a century the EU has served as the abiding example of successful regional integration. Germany and France, only at war 70 years ago, are now extensive military and economic allies who require each other in order to leverage success in a complex world. Many other regions have taken after the EU, attempting to duplicate the political success and directly referring to the EU as an example - from ASEAN to SADC. Any failure of the EU would spread out to an internal questioning of like regions or regional projects, which in turn rises to complications in the question of how to evolve comparative politics.
Finally, the very question of a fracturing in the EU, given under the proposal for “brexit” implies that comparative politics will need a revolution in the understanding of how to secure political coalitions in a regional world that does not take regionalization for granted as a valuable tool in the foreign policy toolkit. Such a point serves only to bolster the first two points given above.
In conclusion, the lack of faith in the existence of the EU and its ability to sustain political solidarity will have direct consequences for the next five year of comparative politics, though most likely far longer. The negotiation of trade deals, and the continued existence of other regional projects will have to reconsider their own political stances in a world where the prime example can no longer be taken for granted as a successful and enduring political experiment.
Bibliography
Erlanger, Steven. 2016. Explaining Brexit: interactive. New York Times
