Internet Assignment – Locating Public Opinion Polls
Assignment #3: Public Opinion Polls
The Gallup Organization
What question did the pollster ask?
“Based on what you have heard or read, how would you rate Donald Trump’s inauguration speech? Would you rate it as excellent, good, just okay, poor or terrible?” .
When was the poll conducted?
Give the percentage breakdowns for the response to the question you wrote above.
Excellent 29%
Good 24%
Just okay 22%
Poor 6%
Terrible 14%
Describe the poll’s methodology:
Telephone interviews were conducted on January 20, 2017 using a random sample of 508 people over eighteen years of age living in the United States. The margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Interviews were performed via landline telephones and cellular phones. Each sample included 70% cellular phone respondents and 30% of the respondents were from landline telephones. Landline and cell phones numbers were selected using random digit dial methods. Analyze the poll’s methodology. What can you infer based on the sampling procedure, sample size, question wording, and or other issues related to reliability and validity?
The polling procedure is typical and nothing substantially bad can be inferred from it. However, the sample size is small, less than 1000. This results in a larger margin of error. Additionally, the likelihood the number of surveys conducted and the specific samples were representative of the overall population is slim. There is no way to gauge the sex, race, level of education, religion, or marital status prior to obtaining the surveys. The sample was chosen randomly though, and conducted in a very narrow time frame. This adds to the reliability of the survey. As for validity, the phrasing of the question seems efficient and effective. This is no indication in the results or analysis and methodology as to which questions came before or after this questions. Thus, verification of the validity of this survey is not sufficient in my opinion.
In addition to sampling error, the wording of questions in surveys can produce error or bias in survey results. Also, polls that are completed within a one day period may be subject to bias or error that may not be present in polls that are conducted over a period of several days.
Pew Research Center
What question did the pollster ask? Is your overall opinion Donald Trump very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
When was the poll conducted?
November 30, 2016 to December 5, 2016
Give the percentage breakdowns for the response to the question you wrote above.
total favorable 31
very favorable 14
mostly favorable 23
total unfavorable 58
very unfavorable 38
mostly unfavorable 20
58% have an unfavorable view of Trump, and 37% have a favorable view of him.
Describe the poll’s methodology:
The sample includes telephone interviews that were performed from November 30 to December 5, 2016 among 1,502 individuals eighteen or older. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used. Participants in the landline sample were chosen by randomly asking for the youngest adult at home during the call. Interviews in the cell phone sample were performed with the individual who answered the phone, if he or she was 18 years or older.
Analyze the poll’s methodology. What can you infer based on the sampling procedure, sample size, question wording, and or other issues related to reliability and validity?
The polling procedure is typical and nothing substantially bad can be inferred from it. The sample size is over 1000 so it is more reliable than the Gallup Poll. As in the Gallup Poll, the likelihood the number of surveys conducted and the specific samples were representative of the overall population is slim. There is no way to gauge the sex, race, level of education, religion, or marital status prior to obtaining the surveys. The sample was chosen randomly though, and conducted in a very narrow time frame. Yet, the timeframe was not as narrow as one day as it extended for six days. This creates less reliability of the survey. As for validity, the phrasing of the question seems efficient and effective. This is no indication in the results or analysis and methodology as to which questions came before or after this questions. Thus, verification of the validity of this survey is not sufficient in my opinion. Along with sampling error, there is an issue with wording in survey polls and a margin of error can be produced along with bias.
References
Jones, J. M. (2017, January 22). Reaction to Trump Inauguration Similar to 2005. 2013 Inaugurations. Retrieved from Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/202772/reaction-trump-inauguration-similar-2005-2013-inaugurations.aspx?g_source=trump inauguration speech&g_medium=search&g_campaign=tiles
Views of President elect Trump and his administration. (2016, December 8). Retrieved from Pew Research Center: http://www.people-press.org/2016/12/08/1-views-of-president-elect-trump-and-his-administration/
