China Warns of Sea Conflict
Diplomatic tensions remain high in the Asian region regarding the South China Sea controversy. The territorial claims that are being made have resulted in the instigation of a flashpoint for the security of the region and to an extent that of the world. Territorial claims are by no means empty or unwarranted; for one, the area is one of the most important fishing lanes with a staggering five trillion dollars’ worth of trade passing through the area. Looking at the annual global fisheries catch, the South China Sea contributes up to 12% of the entire fisheries catch (Tisdall para. 2). This is coupled with the fact that it is rich in natural gasses and oil. These factors combined have made it one of the most contested regions of the world. Taiwan, China, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Philippines have been drawn into a complicated web of disputes over the area.
China has been at the heart of the controversy by claiming the largest chunk of the sea. The efforts of China in the last few months have been focused on land reclamation projects underlined by building on the reefs in the region to assert their claims. In an attempt to ensure that the China stays back, the United States has been at the forefront of running a number of high-profile military operations. The Nine-dash line that has been used by China as the territorial marker has gone on to encroach on the Indonesian territory, who do not lay any claim on to the South China Sea. The simmering conflict in the South China Sea has resulted in an arms race, with Pacific rivals advertising for bids to update their maritime security technology. Australia, Japan, Vietnam, China, et al., have been on a shopping spree for new submarines and other military technology, with the United States lifting an arms embargo on Vietnam and selling weapons to Taiwan.
These geopolitical antecedents are reminiscent of the tensions witnessed in the region in the 1930s through to the formation of the nation of Taiwan when tensions were at a peak. A ruling delivered by the Permanent Court of International Arbitration on 12th July 2016 regarding China’s aggressive exercise of jurisdiction over areas claimed by the Philippines confirms the nuanced nature of this conflict. The Hague Court ruled in favor of the Philippines, terming China’s activities in the islands unlawful. Coming at a time when the Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe is actively pursuing new alliances in the regions, notably with Australia, and the implementation of a foreign policy that seeks to re-establish Japan as an economic and political heavyweight in the region, the South East Asia region may just become more polarized. As parties posture and dither, the conflict assumes more nationalistic undertones, which may end up escalating the territorial disputes.
While the controversy continues to rise, there is a very low likelihood of military confrontation. For China and the US, a risk-reduction treaty has been put in place to minimize the chances of encounters at the sea turning into a fully-fledged confrontation ("Why Law Can't Solve the South China Sea Conflict, para. 32). As the host of the This year’s G20 meeting, there is a possibility that China might back down from their frivolous expansion projects. China’s president may choose to avoid inflaming the international community. On the downside, however, for a country struggling with corruption and incompetence, a leader who is power hungry, this might be looked at as an opportunity to reassert dominance and place a firm grip on power. He may choose to passion combat aircraft on the innumerable artificial islands that dot the South China Sea. While the next move by the claimants to the South China Sea may be unknown, one fact does remain: the risks of military confrontation remain high both on land at sea.
Work Cited
Tisdall, Simon. "South China Sea Ruling Was Aimed at Easing Tension - but May Just Stoke Conflict." The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 2016. Web. 15 July 2016.
"Why Law Can't Solve the South China Sea Conflict." Washington Post. The Washington Post, n.d. Web. 15 July 2016.
