Risk management cycle and strategy of disaster
- Introduction
Recent studies on the climate have linked global warming to the occurrence of earthquakes. Even though it does not seem real that climate change would affect plate tectonics movement, scientists have managed to identify a probable linkage between the movement of plate tectonics and global warming. This provides in depth insight into the recent occurrence of strong earthquakes such as the 2010 earthquake in Chile, 2004 in Indonesia, and the 2010 earthquake that ripped Haiti. The past decade alone has witnessed three of the strongest earthquakes to ever hit the earth. Therefore there could a link between the movement of plate tectonics and climate change.
In this report, an analysis of the 2010 Chilean earthquake is given based on the risk management cycle. The focus of the analysis is to explain the correct and wrong procedures that the Chilean government took in response to the disaster. Based on the analysis, the report will also recommend a disaster management strategy which can be used for future effective management of earthquakes and other disasters.
- Overview of the 2010 Chilean earthquake
The 2010 Chilean earthquake is one of the strongest earthquakes to ever occur. With a magnitude of 8.8 on the Richter scale, the earthquake ranks second among the strongest earthquakes to ever occur, in terms of magnitude, after the 2004 Indonesian earthquake that had a magnitude of 9.1 on the Richter scale. However, despite its strong nature, the amount of damage caused was considerably small compared to weaker earthquakes that have occurred in other parts of the world. The quake was felt strongly within six regions in Chile, both on the northern and southern part of the country. Araucania and Valparaiso are the two regions with more than 70 percent of the country’s population which felt the greatest impact of the quake. It triggered a major tsunami which was only concentrated within the coastal region of the country. Unlike the 2004 tsunami that was triggered by the Indonesian quake, the impact of was focused on south-central Chile. This is despite the issuance of tsunami warnings in several other countries.
- Risk management cycle
The risk management cycle shows a typical way of managing disaster scenarios. The process of managing risk s and disasters involves five major steps beginning with identification of the risk, assessment of the potential impact caused by the risk, determining response strategies, and mitigation. Once the strategies have been established, the cycle then becomes complete by conducting regular monitoring of the risk and reporting the state of affairs. Additionally, the process can be expanded to include two more steps and bring the overall count to seven steps. This report will focus on the expanded risk management cycle that has seven steps. The figure below illustrates all the seven steps a risk management cycle. The steps include, risk identification, risk measurement, risk analysis, decision making, implementation, monitoring, and policy.
Risk identification
The first step is risk identification and it involves identifying loss exposure. In other words, it is a process that seeks to identify potential risk that can prevent the country from achieving its purpose. This same step can also be used in organizations to identify loss exposure and potential harm that would prevent it from achieving its goals. The major aim of this step, according to is to identify external and internal events which have negative impacts on the capability outcomes and performance of projects. Critical information necessary for this process ranges from financial statements to geological data on a country. The information is therefore used to analyze actual losses and predict the loss exposure in the future.
For the purpose of this report, information regarding the damages and loss incurred after the 2010 Chilean earthquake will be presented. The information will then be used to make future prediction of the potential risk of an earthquake in Chile which in effect will assist in coming up with effective strategies for response and mitigation of the risk. In view of this, the information on actual loss will be analyzed against the expectations of official government statements and insurance experts. The major losses occurred mainly as a result of the quake and the triggered tsunami. The tsunami also led to major flooding in the coast region of the country.
The earthquake caused a major power outage in the country leaving more than 9o percent of the country’s total population in darkness for several days. However, the continual blackout was only witnessed in some parts of the country while other parts only experienced blackouts for fewer days. As mentioned, earlier, the number causalities and death was less than expected for an earthquake of that magnitude. According to official government statement, only 525 people lost their lives as a result of the quake while 25 others were reported missing. However, the major loss from the earthquake was destruction of property. Nearly 10 percent of the country’s population had their home and properties destroyed. According to insurance experts, the damage would cost the industry up to 7 billion dollars. These estimates were confirmed by two giant companies in the insurance industry, Swiss Reinsurance Co. and Munich Re.
Measurement of risk
The second step in the risk management cycle is measurement of the risk. This step has been described by to involve measuring the loss probability. Loss probability is an estimation of the potential of the risk occurring in the future and its severity. These two variables are the most reliable for measuring the probability of loss.
Chile falls directly under the areas vulnerable to earthquakes. The country has been experiencing earthquakes since the 16th century with magnitudes as high as 8.7 on the Richter scale. Since the year 2000, the country has experienced an earthquake nearly every year except for 2001 and 2006. In fact, just this week there was a 6.1 magnitude earthquake that hit the central part of the country however there were no casualties and injuries reported. Based on this information, it is apparent that Chile is prone to earthquakes. In addition, the country continues to witness a rise in earthquakes. The number of earthquakes experienced in the last decade is almost equal that of between 1970 and 2000. Therefore in measuring the loss probability, this paper will focus on a time period of ten years beginning from 2000 to 2010.
The frequency of occurrence is calculated by considering the number times the disaster has occurred within the selected period and dividing it by the years. For the Chilean case, it was established that there have been 10 cases of earthquakes with significantly strong magnitude in the last 10 years. The frequency of occurrence will therefore be:
10/ 10 = 1
This indicates that every year, the government should be prepared to manage earthquake disasters. Since the 2010 earthquake was more severe than earlier cases within the selected time period, the total damage and cost will therefore be used to estimate the severity of future risks in terms of damage. The total amount of loss according to the analysis in the first step is 7000000000 dollars. In order to calculate the loss probability, the total amount of loss is multiplied to the frequency of occurrence.
In this second step, the Chilean government did the correct measures since it had anticipated for the earthquake. The government has been rated among the most effective in controlling cases of earthquakes. It is highly ranked with countries such as the United States and Turkey. It is for this reason that the country continues to report low causalities and death during earthquakes. There is usually advanced planning for earthquakes with training drills being integrated in school curriculum for both adult and child education.
Risk analysis
In risk analysis, there are four methods that can be used. They include retain control, avoid, and transfer. The table below illustrates the four methods in relation to their severity and frequency. Risk avoidance strategy is used when both the severity and probability of occurring are high. Transfer strategy is effective during low frequency and high severity; control strategy is effective during low severity and high frequency; and the last strategy, retaining risk is effective for use in cases where both the probability of occurrence and severity are low.
Studies have indicated that there is no particular strategy that can be used as an avoidance of risk. In other words, it is inevitable to avoid risk.
The Chilean government understands the potential risk they have to earthquakes thereby putting response and mitigation measures in place to brace for the risks. Immediate crisis response is where the Chilean government went wrong since there were a lot of mistakes done during the process. The major mistake was the manner in which the tsunami alert was handled. The alert went off from a unit in the navy without first consulting with the Chilean national emergency office, which is the body charged with handling cases of disaster in the country. Lack of integration and cooperation was evident from various agencies within the country. This had implication of delay in relaying information to the affected areas. In addition, the earthquake caused a power outage in almost every part of the country. The system that was used to relay emergency information depended on electricity from the national grid. Since there was no power, there was a delay in disseminating the information. As a result, the emergency alert had to be relayed by the navy.
The power outage also caused the government to delay supply of essential items to the affected people. Cities in the southern part of the country were receiving supplies at a slower rate because it was hard for the government to access their needs. This situation was made worse by the power outage. In severe cases, the army is usually expected to be deployed to assist in response. Since this is among the major natural disasters to ever occur in the country there was need for the government to deploy the army to assist in disaster response. Politically, the government had to be sensitive to the use of the army in creating law and order during the crisis. Drawing from negative memories during earlier regimes, the government was forced to hesitate using the army to assist other government agencies in response. The need for the army was primarily to maintain law and order because in some affected places, residents participate in looting and arson.
Risk decision
Risk decision is the fourth step and it involves decisions made before, during, and after the risk (Harrington & Niehaus, 2000). The central government made decisions aimed at disaster preparedness before the actual disaster occurred. Through its various agencies, the government has always had measures put in place to assist in cases emergency. The people are educated on ways of handling the situation during an earthquake. There are also measures for preparedness during tsunamis since most of the earthquakes normally hit the floor of the Pacific Ocean thus triggering tidal waves reach mainland. The waves then cause a heavy flooding in the mainland. The major problem transpired during response where there was too much delay in dispersing help to the affected areas. Essentially, the amount of time it took for the central government to be armed with concrete information and better organization to make informed decision was small. In as much as the government was ready with response measures developed from previous cases, there was a general lack of flow of information during the crisis. This explains the delays. Decision made after the crisis can be regarded as effective. The government has made steps in the process of recovery, building some of the infrastructures that were destroyed during the crisis. It can be noted that roads, transport and communication systems were destroyed. The national power grid was also destroyed. The decision of the government to have these infrastructures renovated is a good post crisis decision.
Implementation
The fifth step in the risk management cycle is implementation which involves assessing the manner in which the decisions identified in the fourth step have been implemented. The decisions aimed at disaster preparedness were implemented effectively since training programs are always running and in some cases integrated into the national education system. It can also be argued that the central government did fail to come up with an alternative way of relaying tsunami alert. In full awareness of the fact that the communication system relied on the electricity supplied through the national power grid, the government should have developed alternative ways of alerting locals about tsunami. There was a need for interagency effort in responding to the crisis. Lack of coordination among various agencies can be very costly since it hampers effective execution or implementation of the decision. In the Chilean case, there was evidence of political interference where a section of the political sphere were not for the idea of using military intervention while the other section supported the use of military intervention. Decisions made during the crisis were however not effective since there was evidence of delay. Basically, the government failed to act fast because of not having enough information about the needs of the people within the affected areas.
Monitoring
The sixth step in the risk management cycle is monitor where the primary focus is assessing the process of implementing the decisions. It is in this step that the need for interagency effort comes alive. One area that can be commended is working together with the US geological service (USGS) in monitoring the situation. The agency was basically responsible for measuring the magnitude of the quakes in different regions and issuing out warnings of tidal waves resulting from the earthquakes. The major failure occurred when the government was unable to get updated information of what was happening immediately after the earthquakes. This information is critical as it helps in the process of monitoring. It can also be noted that the government failed to act immediately because of lack of information. The information is therefore critical for making informed decision, monitoring the process, and strategizing measures for impact mitigation.
Policy
The final step is policy and it involves using experiences from previous risk to improve current policies and to develop strong measure for future management of the risk or similar risks. For Chile, there is an obvious need to execute relief in a well coordinated, well fashioned, and decisive manner. There is need to improve the warning system to dispatch alerts in timely manner. The communication system should not solely rely on electricity
- Risk management strategy
A risk management strategy outlines approaches in identification, assessment and management of risk. Based on the assessment of the risk, the Chilean government should focus on a strategy of risk control or avoidance. Actions to be taken during risk control and avoidance include having a well coordinated approach in during response, ensuring there is sufficient power backup for the emergency alert and communication system and making policies focused on environmental protection. Since plate tectonic movements have been linked to global warming, thus explaining the recent increase in earthquakes, it is only prudent for the government to push for a reduction in greenhouse gas emission.
- Conclusion
The report has analyzed the 2010 Chilean earthquake using the risk management cycle. The main focus of the analysis was to identify and explain the mistakes done as well as the things that the Chilean government did right in managing the risk. From the analysis it can be concluded that even though perfection may still be difficult to achieve, the Chilean government managed to handle earthquake disasters in a commendable way. Even though it made numerous mistakes the response taken led to a reduced impact of the risk. An earthquake of that magnitude has proven to have great impact in terms of loss of life and infrastructure damage. However, the Chilean earthquake did not have such a severe damage despite its strength. Finally, based on the analysis, the report has also recommended a risk management strategy that can be used to improve management in the future. The strategy focuses on risk avoidance and risk control.
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