Application of asymmetrical warfare in solving socio-economic and political grievances is nothing new to humanity. Over different periodic spans, the world has been exposed to some terror, which upon waging an entire war against leads to the emergence of a mutant form of the same, but characteristically unique, trends of terror. Analysts have studied the trends of terror, specifically in the 20th century up to date to come up with the infamous theory: terrorist wave theory. Definitively, the terrorist wave theory details the unique manner in which terrorism has been mutating through periods of time. This paper discusses extensively the terrorist wave theory based on input from a range of reputable sources. Ultimately, the paper examines if the theory could be a logical approach to tackling terrorism in the future.
According to Rosenfield (2010), the first wave of terrorism was in the 1880s and was popularly referred to as the anarchist wave. The political program that was put in place by Czar Alexander of Russia is believed to have triggered the existence of anarchist terrorism in the world. Political assassinations were the primary avenue applied by the anarchists as their asymmetrical weapon of terror. After spending periods of consistent terrorist attacks in Russia, the terrorist made a proclamation that they “are not killers, but terrorists.” Anarchists assassinated heads of state, government officials and industrialists in what would eventually lead to the end of oppressions and social institutions. The attempts by the insurgents to overthrow the world order, however, destabilized its zeal and instead result in the emergence of the world war.
The demise of the First World War led the world into the second wave of terror: the anti-colonial wave. The victors of the First World War: Britain and France were at the receiving end of the anticolonial wave with most of their citizens assassinated in the colonies. Rosenfield (2010) asserts that the emergence of anti-colonial organizations such as Irgun, IRA and more are remembered to be the characteristic nature of the anti-colonial wave. After 40 years, the anti-colonial wave collapsed leading to the emergence of a new left wave. As opposed to today's jihadi wave that is religious, political ambitions marred the new left stream. The successful resistance against the US and French military by Viet Cong in Vietnam is believed to be the root of the new left wave. The third wave involved a unity of many powers, a factor which eventually led to its collapse as each power struggled for authority. The current modern wave of terrorism is the religious wave that began in 1979 after the successful Iranian revolution. The resistance of Afghanistan against Soviet invasion only fuelled the course of the pure wave which initially was driven by religious doctrine but later mutated into virulently driven anti-western ideologies. Institutional killings, suicide bombings as well as abductions have become the primary characteristics of the current wave of terror (Rosenfield,2010).
The four waves of terror, as discussed herein could form a basic understanding of future trends in terrorism. From the above discussion, the objectives of terrorists in all the four waves remain and unchanged. Terror groups are discontent with the social order and thus make endless endeavors change the social rules in place. What changes are the techniques that terrorists apply in executing their tasks- but with very similar objectives? Analysts whose aims are to wipe out terrorism should change tactics if they are to make any progress. Maybe a change of the current social order could be a starting point in a long-term logical manner to fight the constantly mutating techniques of terrorism.
Reference
Rosenfield, J. E. (2010). Terrorism, Identity, and Legitimacy: The Four Waves Theory and Political Violence. Hoboken: Taylor & Francis
