China has one of the most interesting demographic stories there is. Aside from housing almost a quarter of the world’s population, China’s population control measures such as the One-Child Policy have earned the interests of many social scientists. The gigantic population of China has brought about economic and social costs on the Chinese society. As part of the efforts to develop China, the government took sweeping actions to correct the increasing population size by limiting the number of children most parents can have. The population growth did dwindle for the most part, however, they are now facing a completely different population problem: the growth of the older Chinese population.
In recent years, the problem of an ageing population has been mostly observed in most European countries, Japan and South Korea. The young has always outnumbered the old population. However, this millennium, we have seen changes in demography of some countries where the old outnumbered the younger population. This is because people now receive an advance medical care, prompting lifespans to increase. In addition, fertility rates were observed to drop, especially in developed countries thus contributing the smaller population of children under the age of 5 (World Heath Organization 2). As some of these countries have shown, the ageing of one’s population is also as concerning as a young one. Both population dynamics of a younger and older population have wide arrays of social and economic costs such as welfare priorities and allocation, environmental and health difficulties, and productivity loss to name a few.
An aging population may entail a large percentage of population with falling health and low productivity. Hence, countries with populations that are old or projected to get old in later years must ensure that its population is cared for medically. This will help extend retirement age and maintain an extended population cohort that is productive.
China: Controlling a Billion of its Population
According to the World Population Data Sheet last 2015, the world have about 7.3 Billion living people (1), with China having a share of about 1.3 Billion people or 17 percent of the world’s population (14). The data also projected that by mid-2030, and mid-2050, Chinese population will remain stable at 1.4 Billion and 1.3 Billion respectively. Today, the percent of its population at the age of 65 and above is 13 percent, while the percentage of their population less than 16 years old is at about 17 percent. At this point, the percentage of the portions of the dependent population may not be a problem for China—yet. The working population of yesterday is getting older by the year, making the population age more rapidly. It is projected to be a concern especially with their healthcare system (“Today’s Research on Aging,” 1).
We can easily trace the changes of their population starting from the implementation of the One-Child Policy in China in 1970’s. Back in 1953, the Chinese population is a young population, with 36 percent consisted of children below 15 years old (Liang, Tu, & Chen, 1355). Marked by a rapid decline in their mortality rate starting at 1962, the Chinese population transitioned towards relatively stable population (as have shown above). The life expectancy in 1953 to 1964 for both male and female of 42.2 years and 45.6 years, respectively, also rose in 1964-1982 to 61.6 years for male and 63.2 years for female (Liang, Tu, & Chen, 1355).
Additionally, with the introduction of the One-child policy in 1979, birth rates also tremendously fell by 50 percent by 1982 (Ibid). Essentially, the one-child policy is a bold move from the newly transitioned government to stabilize the economic growth (“Today’s Research on Aging”, 1) that has been stagnant, especially during the years of Mao Zedong. The one child policy aims to limit at most one child for most of the couples in China. The plan was especially strict for employees of the government, and was lightened considerably for some non-government workers and those parents residing in rural areas (Settles, Sheng, & Zang, 2).
The combination of low mortality and low birth rate signals a slower population growth rate for China. This is good and all, because slowing the growth can mean benefits for the government and the citizens such as economic growth and relatively low welfare burdens. However, there is such a thing as a too slow population growth. Looking back at the 2015 Population data sheet, the total fertility rate of China is 1.7. In demographer’s term, this is a red flag because the ideal TFR is the replacement level of 2.1 (14). This means that a woman gives birth to two or three children to replace the parents in the population, while the excess 0.1 are for women who do not give birth. Now, population trends in China are almost the same as the trends in European countries that are also experiencing an aging population (2015 Population Data Sheet 14). All of which have also a TFR that is below or almost below replacement level. In effect, the growth of the elderly population is happening rapidly, but the working populations who are set to support them are dwindling because the elder population is not replaced fast enough to balance the population proportion. Of course, this is still a problem for the future. However, it must be pointed out that demographic problems are not an easy fix, since it requires an extended period to actually bring about changes in the population, and an immediate plan of action must be done so that potential problems are proactively solved.
Economic and Social Costs of an aging Population
There are numerous costs to the rapid changes in demographic dynamics of China. In the next section, I will elaborate on the economic and social costs of the aging population as pertains to: 1) the welfare particularly to pensions and health care systems, 2) the changed family dynamics, and its implication to the elder population, and 3) environment and changes in disease patterns.
The support system for the elder population in China comprises of a pension system and family assistance. The pension system covers two kinds of urban workers: workers who have served either in the government or in their science industries or workers who were employed in small-scale industries and handicrafts (Liang et al. 1358-59). Meanwhile, elders in the rural areas do not enjoy pension plans at all — at least not, like how urban elders have. Their main support system is their families (Cangping 52). Because of the lack of pension system, elders in the rural areas are more likely to continue to work well after the age of retirement, most of which—men primarily—are auxiliary or small-scale rural jobs (Liang et. al 1359).
In actuality, it is mandated by the Chinese Marriage Code that elders are primarily cared for by their families and any violations to it is treated as a criminal offence (Ibid). However, the introduction of the one-child policy has greatly affected their family size. Now, there are only a small percentage of families that are extended in nature. This in turn, makes caring for the elder family member difficult especially if the support is coming only from one child (Ibid). Accordingly, the welfare and pension services provided by the government to the elder population are at some point contingent upon the number and ability of the country’s workforce (Spengler 94, qtd in Liang et. al 1360). An aging population as well as a dwindling working cohort from the Chinese population may put a strain in the welfare pensions and health care for elders.
According to “Today’s Research on Aging”, the healthcare system in China has not been up to par in providing its citizens an efficient service (3). There are several problems with the healthcare system, especially with the coverage for both rural and urban elders. Before 1980’s, the Chinese elders were able to receive a countrywide healthcare insurance. However, the shift in the economic development of China towards rapid decentralization of market planning of the government displaced the health care systems (“Today’s Research on Aging”, 3).
An additional problem in the healthcare system is the increase of obesity cases among Chinese (“Today’s Research on Aging”, 2). This problem actually set to produce at least two glaring difficulties. One is that the healthcare system must also accommodate obesity issues and diseases since it is projected to become a population wide problem. Two, obesity cases mostly involved children, and that childhood obesity would undoubtedly translate to adult health problems in the future (Ibid). These two put a strain to the already the poor healthcare system.
There are pressing environmental problems from the rapid urbanization in China. For instance, air pollution in China was reported to have gotten worse throughout the years. In fact, people in urban areas are worse off, because air pollution is great in these areas, while in poorer cities or rural areas experience a relatively low exposure to air pollution (“Today’s Research on Aging” 3). Nevertheless, the elder population becomes more sensitive to the effects of air pollution and other environmentally related problems (Ibid). Thus, aging populations repeatedly exposed to pollutions are likely to develop poor health and are projected to add to the strain of medical costs. Aside from respiratory diseases, an elder population can shift disease patters towards degenerative diseases. These diseases, such as Alzheimer’s, Dementia, cancer, or congenital problems require both costly medicine and round-the-clock care and monitor from nurses and doctors. Invariably, aging population would require a costly support for medical and healthcare.
South Korea and Japan are two countries who are facing a similar aging population of China. Both countries have reached a total fertility rate that is below replacement levels, coupled with an extended life expectancy (Stephen n.d). Japan, on the other hand, has long since struggled with their aging population. They have a median age of 45, a TFR of 1.4 and a life expectancy of 81 years old (Ibid). Unlike China, both countries enjoy effective healthcare programs (Banister, Bloom, & Rosenberg 28). They also have endorsed policies that are pro-natalists. They have also set up incentives and support for families that have younger children (Stephen 5-6)
Conclusion
The problem of an aging population is not yet alarming as of now. However, demographic problems are harder to solve since it also creates more problems for the society. Additionally, solving them through leveling out the population takes a lot of time. The problems of the young population and an old population are usually the same. Both face burdens from the dependent population, and the working cohort usually endure the most of this, such as decreased income and purchasing power. They are levied with higher tax, and most of the country’s GDP are aimed towards either education or pension.
Like Japan and South Korea, China should seriously start talking about advocating pronatalist policies so that they would not necessarily suffer the same problems aging populations have. Child support and benefits should be taken into consideration to encourage couples to have children.
It is important to take a proactive, rather than a reactive role, in answering population problems. An improvement of the health of people in China is a must to maintain a health population so that the healthcare system would not be burdened. This can also help the country extend the retirement age from 60 to 64 to extend the population of the productive cohort, or better yet set up industries for the elder population so that they can remain self-sufficient and financially independent from the state and their families.
Works Cited
2015 World Population Data Sheet. Washington D.C: 2015.< www.prb.org/pdf15/2015-world-population-data-sheet_eng.pdf>
Cangping, Wu. The Aging Population in China. Beijing, China: International Institute on Aging, 1991. Print
Liang, Jersey, Edward Jow-Ching Tu, and Xiangming Chen. “Population Aging in the People’s Republic of China.” Social Science Medicine 23.12 (1896): 1353–1362. < http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/26458/0000546.pdf?sequence
Settles, B, X Sheng, and Y Zang. “The One Child Policy and Its Impact on Chinese Family.” XV World Congress of Sociology. Brisbane, Australia: N.p., 2008. Web. < http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/f22b18aa8dd279ef75ccf36fe16b8bf4/one-child-policy-in-china-family-impact.pdf>
Stephen, Elizabeth Hervey. Bracing for Low Fertility and a Large Elderly Population in South Korea. N.p., 2012. Web. 51 < http://www.keia.org/sites/default/files/publications/aps_doc_elizabeth_stephens.pdf>
“Today’s Research on Aging.” Population Reference Bureau July 2010: n. pag. < www.prb.org/pdf10/todaysresearchaging20.pdf>
Woo, J, T Kwok, and HJ Yuan. “Ageing in China: Health and Social Consequences and Responses.” International Epidemiological Association 21 (2002): 772–775. < https://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/31/4/772.full.pdf+html>
World Health Organization. Global Health and Aging. N.p., 2011. < http://www.who.int/ageing/publications/global_health.pdf
