China would experience demographic drag for the next decades. As a result, the productivity of the country may derail due to the shortage of workforce. However, the USA’s population would be almost three times larger than the China’s current working population by 2050 (22). At the same time, India’s population growth would remain resilient up to 2030, and stabilize for some time. The USA does not depend on fertility rate alone for the labor force. It is among the nations with the highest number of legal and illegal immigrants that provide labor. The USA has a net of 1.6 million immigrants annually. Notwithstanding the above propositions, China and India would still be the most populous states in the world. The issues of the elderly would be prominent in China while India would be dealing with youth problems.
The USA has the demographic and economic resources that would make it remain on top of the world up to 2050. It has a high immigration rate that would keep the population rising while China and India would experience a drop. Using the national resource base, China would become the most important economic contender in the next forty years. If China achieved Japan’s level of the economy, then it would have a higher GDP than that of the USA.
Although the population growth is not the only factor that determines a country’s economic growth, it is among the most significant especially if compared to other nations. The effect of the populations is not easy to reverse, unlike other economic factors.
Question
Half a century is quite a long time, are there no other foreseeable factors that would alter the status quo?
Works cited
Devanzo Julie and Libicki Martin. Dust, Dawn, and High Noon. Democratic trends forecast next phases for China, India, and the United States. Rand Review Winter 2011-2012. Vol. 35 No. 3. Available at <http://www.rand.org/pubs/periodicals/rand- review/issues/2011/winter.html>
