The Maldives is a group of about 1200islands and a population of approximately 400000 people located the perceived center of the Indian Ocean. The most distinguishing characteristic about these islands is the fact that the highest point on the Maldives is a mere 2.4 meters above sea level. Thus, the fear that in the recent future these islands are at risk of being submerged is real given the current trend of rising seal levels. In this eventuality, the residents of the islands will have no option but to migrate to the neighboring countries which include India, Australia and the rest of Asia. These emigrants from the Maldives can be effectively termed as Environmental refugees. Apart from the imminent threat that the group of islands is vulnerable as a result of submergence, the location of the Maldives also predisposes it to future environmentally related risks. The Maldives is located smack at the intersection of both trade and expletory routes. Also, the Maldives is located in the Asia-Pacific region which is the world’s hot spot for natural disasters. This also poses an environmental threat to the residents of the group of islands.
Presently there are claims from various quarters that flooding has already started in the region and threatens to wipe out the islands from the face of the earth. These claims emanate from both within and without the government. Empirical findings to the contrary indicate that the sea levels in the Maldives, Bangladesh, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and French Guyana are stable and thus there is no reason for alarm. This has been the center of contention especially between scientists and the various governments and non governmental organizations in the region as far the sea levels threat is concerned. In fact, according to the tide-gauge data, the sea levels in the region have been stable for the past three decades. This begs the question: which side is right? Is it the proponents of the imminent threat backed by observational data or the scientific community opposed to the existent of the threat backed by empirical data? Only time shall tell. Despite these contentions, it however clear that the Maldives and other countries in the regions are prone to annually floods that force the region’s resident to migrate temporarily. It is however unclear whether these floods are as a result of the rising sea levels. Either way it is evident that the Maldives is vulnerable to environmental related threats. This is because all the threats to the security of the residents of the islands in the region are environmentally related and are due to the unique location of the Maldives as earlier mentioned.
Peters, K. L. (2011). Environmental Refugees. California: California Polytechnic State University Press.
Sea level primarily rises as a result of two reasons. It must however be mentioned that both these two causes of the rise in sea levels are accelerated by climate change. This is clear from the nature of the two causes that shall now be briefly discussed. The first probable occurrence that can cause sea levels to rise is the expansion of warm waters. This is only possible if the water is either heated up by the atmospheric temperatures or a natural catastrophe such as a volcano can also achieve this very effectively. As a result of the widespread emission of greenhouses gases as a result of technological and industrial advancements, global temperatures are on the rise. This may be also attributed to the depletion of the ozone layer as a result of the use of CFCs. When global temperatures rise, they result to warming of the waters in sea and consequently expansion of the same waters. The eventuality is the occurrence of rise in the water levels in the sea.
The second cause of rise in sea levels is melting of the continental and mountain glaciers. It is clear again that this melting of the aforementioned glaciers is attributed to global warming and its effects. Though, this is only possible if the glaciers melted completely which is virtually impossible in the near future. According to the currently available empirical data, the sea levels are expected to have risen by between 0.5inches and 1.2meters by the year2100. Since the highest point on the Maldives is 2.4meters above sea level it is highly likely that most of the group of islands will be flooded. In this eventuality most residents of the islands will have no option but to permanently relocate to other countries. In extreme circumstance this flooding might result to the complete wipe out of the Maldives nation. The tragedy of this whole affair is that everyone in the world contributes to the rising of sea levels but it is only people who live in the proximity of the seas such as the residents of the Maldives island get to pay the price.
This article is relevant in because it asserts that yes the rise in sea levels in the Maldives is high probability. The only issue that is unclear is when this will eventually overwhelm the Maldives government and its citizenry and result to massive migrations to neighboring countries. The paper also reveals the fact everyone in the globe is playing a role in accelerating the rise in the sea levels.
Mörner, N.-A. (2007). Sea Level Changes and Tsunamis, Environmental Stress and Migration Overseas: The Case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Internationales Asienforum, Vol. 38 (2007), No. 3–4, pp. 353–374, 353–374.
This article reviews the results of empirical research conducted in the Maldives region by scientists over a six year period. The study involved collection of samples on the island and below the sea level as well as carbon dating of fifty five samples. Three out of the 6 visits made by the scientists were elaborate team expeditions. It is important to note this study was yet to be concluded by the time this article was published; hence these are just preliminary findings .According to empirical data, the Maldives lies at the world’s deepest geiod hole at -104meters and a relief of 180meters. A geiod is basically “the equipotential surface of gravity set by the attraction and rotational forces with respect to the density of water thereby controlling the shape of the ocean surface”. Though as a result of the last glaciation maxima, the geiod has lowered by 30meters resulting to the lowering of the sea levels in the Maldives to -150meters. The effect of this change is yet to be ascertained as empirical studies are still ongoing. It was also discovered that the dynamic levels of precipitation and evaporation affect the sea levels in the Indian Ocean. This implies that consequently that the geiod varies seasonally to the tune of between 3 and 5 decimeters. The sharp spikes that are a characteristic of the Maldivian sea level curve point at the dynamic monsoon generated water circulations and displacements. Finally, it was discovered that the Sumatra earthquake of magnitude 9 that occurred in December of year 2004 caused a tsunami whose impacts were felt in Maldives 2400kilometers away. The study asserts that there is a close correlation between the changes in sea levels and occurrence of tsunamis.
The study revealed that sea level changes, climatic changes and tsunamis have contributed to significant migration of people and animals in the Maldives region. According to the study the changing sea levels resulted in formation of spikes that may have forced the migration and the opening and closing of trade routes for the ancient Maldivians. The scientists also speculate that tsunamis as well as earthquakes may have resulted in maritime migration. One interesting finding of the study is that, contrary to popular belief, the sea level in the region doped in the 1970s and may not be rapidly rising, perhaps not rising at all.
The significance of the article is that it shows empirical and graphical data on the changes in sea levels and the correlation with tsunamis that may have caused migration in the past. However it also indicates that the sea level is no presently rising rapidly.
Mörner, N.-A. (Winter 2010/2011 ). The great sea-level Humbug:There Is No Alarming Sea Leve Rise. 21st Century Science & Technology, pp. 13-21.
In this second article, based on field observation in Maldives, Nils-Axel Mörner (a renowned oceanographic expert for well over 45 years) dispels the news, based on predictions, that the sea level in the Maldives is rising at an alarming rate (Mörner, Winter 2010/2011 ). The scientist relies on data generated of a period of several decades to assert that the rise in the sea level in the Maldives is not as rapid as claimed by other sources. In deed the sea level dropped significantly in the 1970s and has been fairly stable in the last three to five decades. Mörner claims that the conventional methods used in the predicting of the changes in sea levels (tides-gauges and satellites) tend to erroneously exaggerate the sea level changes. The study asserts that the changes in the sea levels are only in the order of 0-0.7mm/year thus predicting a rise of 5=/-.15 cm by 2100 which differ significantly from the predictions of the international Panel on Climate change (37cm by 2100). It is important to note that this article does not deny the fact that there is a rise in sea levels in the region but simply disagree with the rate of the sea level rise predicted by other scholars and particularly the IPCC. The IPCC predicts that at the rate (determined by erroneous means i.e. computer generated models) of the rise in sea level the islands (Maldives) will soon be flooded, millions of people will be displaced and tens of thousands drowned. In other words the paper simply advocates for more accurate and reliable prediction and measurement methods that would free the world from artificial crisis mode. Of importance to note is that the same scientist in a paper published in 2007 showed that in ancient times the rise in sea level and resulting tsunamis caused population migrations. This paper is by no means negating his earlier findings but simply implying that the rise in the sea is not as rapid as predicted using models. The article presents a common challenge in research where results may differ based on the methodology. It recommends continuous surveillance that would yield more accurate prediction.
The significance of this article is to give voice to “naysayers”. It is important to have balanced findings and to look at all angles on the topic of the study. This article therefore presents a rare but important angle in studying environmental migration in the Maldives due to rise in sea levels.
References
Mörner, N.-A. (2007). Sea Level Changes and Tsunamis, Environmental Stress and Migration Overseas: The Case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Internationales Asienforum, Vol. 38 (2007), No. 3–4, pp. 353–374, 353–374.
Mörner, N.-A. (Winter 2010/2011 ). The great sea-level Humbug:There Is No Alarming Sea Leve Rise. 21st Century Science & Technology, pp. 13-21.
Peters, K. L. (2011). Environmental Refugees. California: California Polytechnic State University Press.
