1) What's the difference between skill and accuracy in weather forecasts?
There is World Weather (GSP), which incorporates the National Weather Service. It has three global centers: Moscow, Washington and Melbourne. On the territory of the meteorological stations, systematically the observations of the weather are held. The meteorologist has to be accurate in his forecasting and use scientific methods in his investigations. Accuracy is, on my opinion, the fidelity of the researches and final data. Skill in the weather’s forecasting is meteorologist’s proficiency and competence in predicting the weather, as it is a very difficult job, for example, observations in the Weather Service every 3 hours make synoptic maps.
2) Describe four different types of weather forecasting methods and give an example of each.
There are various methods to forecast the weather.
Synoptic weather forecasting method is the process of analysis of weather maps. The essence of this method is the simultaneous review of the state of the atmosphere over a vast area, which allows to determine the nature of the development of the atmospheric processes and changes in the weather conditions in the region of interest. The review is carried out with the help of weather charts, which are applied to the data of meteorological observations at different heights, as well as at the surface, produced simultaneously by the same program in different parts of the globe. Based on a detailed analysis of these cards forecaster determines further conditions for the development of atmospheric processes in a certain period and calculates the characteristics of meteorological parameters - temperature, wind, cloudiness, precipitation, etc.
Numerical or hydrodynamic method of weather forecast consists of the mathematical resume of the system of complete hydrodynamic equations to obtain the predicted fields of pressure, temperature at regular intervals. Computing centers in Moscow, Washington and Tokyo use different numerical schemes of development of large-scale atmospheric processes to make the forecast accurate.
Statistical forecasting methods allow to predict the future weather for a certain period according to weather conditions and help to predict changes in various meteorological parameters in the future.
There are also many popular methods as, for example, the information we can receive from the environment, like the nature of clouds, the temperature of the air, the direction of the wind direction, the behavior of birds or insects. The more signs confirm the same weather conditions the more certain prognosis would be.
3) What makes a tornado-producing thunderstorm different from other thunderstorms?
There are different types of storms, but they all agree on one thing: basically, they are fast moving air from one place to another. Storm with the rain, thunder and lightning flashes is called a thunderstorm. The most dangerous and destructive types of storms are hurricanes and tornadoes. They are storms that begin in the tropics. For example, in North America they are often held in the Gulf of Mexico, rolling along the east coast of the continent.
4) What is wind shear? Why does wind shear represent a hazard to aviation?
The wind shear is the vector difference in wind speed in two points in the atmosphere. In other words it’s a change in wind direction and in the wind speed in the atmosphere at short altitudes. Wind shear always exists in the nature and usually it doesn’t have a significant impact on the dynamics of the airplanes. However, in some cases, there is a very significant shift amount winds that may affect the aircraft of any class. It can cause an accident.
