[Customer's name]
[Institutional affiliations]Introduction
In the modern society, statistics has become one of the most important national economic management tools. The notion of any management decision requires a preliminary analysis of the current situation, based on a miscalculation of options, comparison of options, assessing the accuracy of the forecasts, the likelihood of errors. Methodological framework for addressing these issues is statistics. Its main task is the calculation and analysis of statistics, allowing the governing bodies receive comprehensive description of the object, whether it is the whole national economy or its individual sectors, enterprises and their divisions. Trends basically give the possibility to research the tendencies of the production and to see the milestones of further development. Analysis and Convergence are one of the research methods of trends. They research it on the comparatively different stages, but give the full picture of the production.
This work is aimed at the investigation on trend analysis, its means and concepts on the example of breakfast production companies. The current trends of breakfast industry make the companies collect the information, make consumer needs researches and follow the production orientations and directions to win the market. The new generation is raised on growing need of healthy convenient breakfast. The main consumer trends today depend on the flavors and ingredients in demand. Also, the companies must be aware of the prices for products which are used in the production and make a constant competitors analyses. All in al, trends are closely bound to statistics and they help to make a research and forecasts. In the course of essay, Nestle corporation was an object of research to see how the company follows the trends ("Top 10 Food Trends to Watch in 2016", 2016).
TREND ANALYSIS is a set of mathematical techniques based on an approximation of the observed values in order to identify the main trends in the change of these characteristics] depending on the parameters. An important focus in the study of the laws of the dynamics of socio-economic processes is the study of the general trend (trend). The basis for the trend is the reverse of the method of analysis that allows you to choose an analytical function that most accurately describes the change in number of speakers in time. It is assumed that the phenomenon observed for several months, accurately described some analytical function. This approach requires consideration of the effect of individual factors on the dynamic range. Visually, the trend line is a graph of selected functions.
Conceptual approach
It is proposed to stop the use of graphic techniques for Research trends (trend) using standard Microsoft Excel. Excel offers the following types of trends: linear, logarithmic, polynomial, the step, exponential, smoothed average. The most suitable for establishing trends and forecasting are the following: linear, logarithmic, polynomial, the step, exponential.
The challenge is that a number of indicators to dynamically calculate the coefficient of determination, which is the formal eligibility criteria of the selected trend analysed dynamic range, and thus determines the value of the reliability of approximation At the request of the researcher Excel allows you to place the coefficient of determination and the regression equation corresponding to the selected trend graph.
Conceptual approach focuses on the application of graphic methods to the Study of trends (trend) using standard Microsoft Excel. Excel offers these types of trends: linear, logarithmic, polynomial, power, exponential, smoothed average. Among the most suitable to establish trends and subsequent prediction include: linear, logarithmic, polynomial, power, exponential. The aim is to allow for a dynamic number of indicators to calculate the coefficient of determination, is the formal criterion of relevance of the selected trend of the analysed series, and hence determines the value of reliability approximation (from the Latin approximate - approximation).
At the request of the researcher Excel allows you to place the determination coefficient and the regression equation that corresponds to the selected trend chart.
It can vary from 0 to 1. The closer it is to 1, the more adequate the tendency, and, consequently, closer is the Association of the selected trend time series. Based on the value of coefficient of determination in statistical practice to apply such a gradation of conformity of the trend of dynamic range: 0 - lack of communication to 0.3, weak; 0.3 to 0.6 - moderate; between 0.7 to 0.9 - high; 0.9 to 1. - the selected trend is fully consistent with the dynamic range. It should also be noted that in Excel the value R2He is totally correct, but for the purposes of determining the adequacy of the selected function that can be ignored.
Formula to calculate trend lines
Linear is used for approximation of data least squares, in accordance with the equation: Y= mx+b ,where m is the slope and b is the coordinate of the intersection of the x-axis.
Polynomial y=b+c1x+c2x2 + c3x3+c6x6, where b and c1..c6 are constants.
Logarithmic y=c lnx + b, where C and b are constants, In is the natural logarithm function.
Exponential y=cebx, where C and b are constants, e is the base of the natural logarithm (Gupta, 1989).
According to Ofek and Wathieu, a true market leader should not ignore trends of the customer's needs and make the constant researched to be aware what to offer to the consumer (2010). Previously, breakfasts were not so popular, but recently, there is a promotion of healthy way of life, that is based on breakfasts. Media, medical literature and social networking sites claim about the culture of healthy breakfast that must be full of energy for organism.
Convergence of trends
For anybody it is not a secret that following trends keeps the company ahead of the competitors (Gratton, 2010). Therefore, in determining the trend points to enter with the trend and determining its completion has made a huge amount of research. It is important not only to recognize the trend, but also to understand how to make it. Fundamental analysis allows to identify long-term trends, and technical analysis can work on shorter time periods. Shopping convergence is a necessary information for retail and production forecasts. After all, convergence is able to show as the beginning of the trend and its continuation. And already the end of the trend will show divergence. Convergence, is often taken as an signal that is often found in the breakdown of the channels, triangles and important price levels.
Convergence is the identity of graphic representations of trends on the price chart and the indicator. The indicator shows the breakout of the new wave before it happens on the chart. Here it is based on this signal and we can say whether the movement continuation after the break of the waves on the price chart. The same convergence ahead of the moment of breakdown triangles on the chart which also can be used as the confirmation signal the moment of breakdown triangles on the chart.
Trend convergence gives to the company the information, how to follow the trend. For example, trends are not constant, and it is crucial for the marketing of the company to investigate, how long it will be beneficial to follow it. Convergence point is the data that helps to make predictions and forecasts (Gupta, 1989). It is a part of trend alalysis, and the earlier the start of the trend will be noticed, the faster will be a reaction of the industry. Basically, the fastest will make new products on the market, which is necessary for the constant customer audience.
Summary
All in all, following trends in all the industries is a part of constant marketing development and project management. The information about the actual consumer’s needs in the sphere of breakfast industry helps to create the products for any needs. A strong feeling of food trends helped the Nestle corporation to be one of the leaders in the production of ready to eat breakfasts and offering products for different lifestyles. It was reached with the help of trend analysis, a constant research of the consumers' needs and with trends convergence as a starting point of the trend. Following the trends helps the food corporations to stay ahead on the market and be faster and better than the competitors.
References
Breakfast Industry Report. (2014). Clarkstonconsulting.com. Retrieved 7 June 2016, from http://clarkstonconsulting.com/publication/food-industry-report-breakfast/
Gratton, L. (2010). THE FUTURE OF WORK. Business Strategy Review, 21(3), 16-23.http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8616.2010.00678.x
Gupta, Y. (1989). Advanced Manufacturing Systems: Analysis of Trends. Management Decision, 27(5). http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/00251748910132502
Ofek, E. & Wathieu, L. (2010). Are You Ignoring Trends That Could Shake Up Your Business?. Harvard Business Review, 88(7/8), 124-131. Retrieved fromhttp://hbr.harvardbusiness.org
Top 10 Food Trends to Watch in 2016. (2016). Nestlé Professional. Retrieved 7 June 2016, from https://www.nestleprofessional.us/trends/top-10-food-trends-watch-2016
