Introduction
Conventional energy sources are commonly non-renewable energy sources these sources are used since long time. Conventional energy sources are used in such extensively way that known reserves are reduced by a great extent. Now it has become more difficult to exploit and discover new deposits of conventional energy sources . It is known that petroleum deposits of our country would be exhausted in few decades while the coal reserves will last for hundred years. The petroleum, natural gas and coal are known conventional energy sources. These three sources account almost 80 percent of total energy sources.
Global energy demand is projected to rise 35% by the year 2035. The reason of such extensive increase is that economies in both developing countries and developed countries are growing and standard of living in developing world is improving.
International Energy Agency states that for energy supplies world would need an investment of $38 trillion from 2011 to 2035 and Almost 3/2 of this amount by the countries outside the OECD. To fulfill with the requirements of energy the world would require increasingly diverse base for energy supply while continuing its reliance on conventional fuel resources, alternatives , unconventional hydrocarbons and need to improved efficiency of the energy in all sectors of economy.
North America
In north America the United States consumes around 20 million barrels of oil per day this is almost 25% of total consumption of world. U.S is largest consumer as well as producer of natural gas in north America. The natural gas consumption is around 700 billion cubic meters. While gas production is around 600 billion cubic meters. There is a gap of 100 billion cubic meter in production and consumption. This gap is filled by importing LNG through Middle east, Africa, Caribbean and huge import of gas is through pipeline from Canada. Due to increase in U.S. population there will be increasing demand for oil and gas. The increase of consumption in oil is around 2% yearly. The situation of Canada is inverse to U.S. The production in Canada exceeds consumption. Its gas production is 185 billion cubic feet while consumption is 100 billion cubic feet. Canada has surplus of gas around 85 billion cubic feet which is exported to U.S. through pipeline. Mexico produces gas around 50 billion cubic feet and its consumption is 57 billion cubic feet. Mexico is also in deficient Mexico import 7 billion cubic feet through pipeline from USA and LNG from Africa.
Europe
Although oil demand of Europe is at lowest in the last 20 years and in last five years demands have shown declines in oil consumption still Oil is most consumed energy source in Europe. oil consumption fall 0.51 million bpd in year 2012 this year E.U demand will drop up to 0.2 million bpd. It is estimated that from 2011 to 2020 due to efficiency gains by latest technology in vehicles will push down consumption by 5 million bpd. In U.K an average new car drove 16.6 km at 1 liter petrol in 2011 compared to 12.7 km at in 2001. In France fuel demand fall 0.8% in 2012 and it is also expected to follow this trend for a decade. While In Italy in last year energy consumption fell 4 percent coming back to levels of mid 1990s. Till 2020 oil product consumption will fall by 12 percent in Italy. Now looking at biggest economy in Europe Germany it has increase oil imports in year 2012 as its economy is on the growing track.
Asia
Asia has largest population and it includes world most fastest growing economies. Asia's increasing fuel consumption is effecting global fuel markets by increase in demand of oil, gas and coal. Increase of energy in Asia account more than 60% of total increase of world. China is the world's second major economy and its energy consumers are shaking up global energy markets. China's increasing growth and momentum is also powering rise in global oil, gas and coal prices. Fuel consumption of China is in rise by 7.2% for year to year as in year 2011 for first half the rise in the usage of natural gas has dominated growth by increasing up 21%. The increase in oil products was 7.2% . China is at the early stage for development its gas market. China is traditionally coal user but it is forcing switch towards cleaner fuels such as gas. China expect that gas can help Chinese economy to meet its incremental demand of energy, along with wind, hydro and nuclear power. India’s economy is expected to grow at 6.5% per year and Primary energy consumption will increase 3.9% per year. The demand for oil will increase from 3.3 million B/D in 2010 to 7.9 million B/D in 2035 it is significant growth in consumption. The demand for natural gas is growing remarkably at an annual rate of 4.6%, and will expand from 50 Mtoe in 2010 to 160 Mtoe in 2035. The demand for coal is growing at an annual rate of 3.7% mainly used in power generation and it will expand by 150% from 290 Mtoe in 2010 to 720 Mtoe in 2035. Energy demand in the Middle East will increase as Middle East is the world’s largest fuel exporter its domestic energy consumption will expand rapidly at the rate of 1.8 from 2010 to 2035.
Projected Future consumption
Oil is major source of energy in most countries while its demand will be higher in future and demand of gas will also seek new peaks. Coal is major part of energy source in china and India but they are also smoothly shifting from coal to gas.
As we have discussed many regions of world it is projected that the fuel consumption of world will increase in coming year but this increase will not be same in all region and even some region fuel consumption will also reduced. These region includes Europe and Russia while Demand of energy will be on rise in North America , china. The trend for third world or developing countries mostly such as India, brazil and middle east is exponentially increasing.
Depletion effects
World is still fulfilling most of its energy requirement by conventional energy sources and any reduction or depletion will affect all region as they are dependent on conventional energy sources.
Most effected region by depletion of conventional energy source will be of north America due to its consumption of conventional energy source which accounts more than 25% of the world's consumption. Another effected region is of middle east and of central Asian countries which are the most producing region of conventional energy sources and their economy is dependent on energy sources exports. While in developing countries depletion will effects on economy growth as their needs are rapidly increasing with the increase in economy so economy in developing countries can show lesser growth or even negative growth. Effect of depletion of conventional energy sources are unbearable for our world but there is an alternated to avoid these effects which is to start exploring new clean energy sources and it could be the only solution to this problem.
Other factors effecting consumption of energy
Population growth of any country directly affect its energy consumption. Different region of world have different impact of population growth on energy consumption as different region have different per capita energy consumption.
As per capital consumption of north America is almost double to Europe and other region precipitate in energy consumption even lesser so increase in population of north America will impact more to energy consumption of world than population growth in any other part of world . Any region's economy growth is another factor that can increase the consumption of conventional energy sources. In developing countries growth rate of economy is higher than developed countries which means developing countries will start consuming more and more energy sources and it is estimated that in 2030 china will cross U.S energy consumption and will become world number one energy consumer.
Projected Gap between production and consumption
As we have discussed projected consumption of some important region of world we have also analysis the current gap between production and consumption and the way these regions are working together to minimized this gap through gas (pipelines), LPG and LNG transfer.
As the projected consumption of conventional energy sources of world are in increasing trend but the growth in accessing new reserve is lower and the known existing reserve are also decreasing every year. So it is projected that in future it will be very difficult for countries to relay only on conventional energy sources as depletion of these sources can effect very badly to all regions. This gap is increasing day by day as the amount of reserve are not increasing and the rate of consumption is increasing this has also effected prices of conventional energy sources which resulted in effecting economies for consumer countries in bad way and producers in good way.
The implication for future is that world should put more focus to make advance technology which could be used efficiently for clean energy collection as now their initial and running cost is so high that these clean resources are not much feasible as conventional sources.
Conclusion
The conventional sources of energy in the world continue to be exploited at such a staggering rate, there will be nothing left to exploit. So there is a need to smoothly divert the direction from conventional energy sources to green , reusable and clean energy sources. Governments are drawing their focus to clean energy for demonstrating independence from conventional sources of energy and are playing a part in moving economy toward more independent energy future. As green energy is not yet reached to most popular source but the economics of availability and stable in terms of fuel cost are increasingly competitive and attractive.
Works Cited
Annual Energy Outlook 2005: With Projections to 2025. DIANE Publishing.
BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. British Petroleum Company.
Frans-Paul, & Shulong, C. China, Europe and International Security. Routledge.
Hartshorn, J. E. Oil Trade: Politics and Prospects. Cambridge University Press.
Mobbs, P. Energy Beyond Oil. Troubador Publishing Ltd.
Streifel, S. S. Review and Outlook for the World Oil Market. World Bank Publications.
