The argument on whether the phenomenon of global warming is natural or human induced is a matter of considerable debate amongst scientists. While some scientists say that this is human induced, others feel this is a natural process leading one to understand that there is not much consensus on this subject. The article under consideration examines the views of various scientists on their positions in this argument by analyzing responses on this subject through a survey, and ends up proving that there is indeed a consensus on the topic (that human activity is responsible for global warming). This essay will examine this claim on the causes of global warming and then present thoughts and opinion about the same.
The main aim of this article is to find out whether there is an established consensus between climate scientists on the subject of whether global warming is a natural phenomenon or a human induced one. While the common person was strongly of the view that global warming occurred largely due to human activities, a commensurate survey was never carried out to judge the responses of the academic and scientific community. This paper by Doran and Zimmerman (2009) attempts to judge these responses through a survey administered largely to Earth Scientists as well as geosciences faculty. While the approach seems correct prima facie there are a couple of problems in the approach taken by Doran and Zimmerman.
This essay will commence with the strong points of this paper. The entire survey tends to give a very practical hands-on approach to find out the nature of agreement amongst scientists as compared to the earlier effort by Oreskes. (Doran & Zimmerman 23) The other important point this paper makes is that even those respondents who had previously written papers criticizing the human hand in the global warming theory also voted in favor (the authors attribute this change in attitude to the fact that this survey would not reveal names of the people and the manner in which they voted). Lastly, there emerged a clear consensus amongst the respondents with less than 2.5-3% holding dissenting views.
The points discussed above are very critical for one to analyze the way we, as people, comprehend global warming. Of the points mentioned above, one that stands out clearly is the fact that most of these scientists who had written dissenting view in their peer reviewed papers ended up accepting that global warming was being induced by human activity. This sentence has many different implications. The first implication is it leads one to wonder if these people were motivated by external causes to write papers (or perform research) to prove that global warming wasn’t real. The second implication is that of the veracity of their published papers. Their dissenting answers clearly imply that they do not hold their own paper as true. Nevertheless, in a confidential forum they stated the views they felt were probably right. This, then, becomes a point of serious concern since it leads one to question the authenticity of research claims put forth by those scientists who felt that the phenomenon of global warming was a myth.
Having explored the strong points of this paper, this essay will now proceed to examine some of the soft spots in the paper. The authors compare the above mentioned survey to a Gallup Poll that suggested that only 58% of the general public felt that global warming was genuine and that it was affecting the people. There are a couple of problems with this comparison – Firstly, this survey was a highly controlled survey where respondents couldn’t vote twice and the administrator was a professional online survey site. On the other hand, the Gallup Poll respondents were probably from a variety of backgrounds that did not understand the subject well or were just interested in filling out the form. As a result, it is certain that there may have been people who filled out the survey with errors or without fully understanding the question.
Another important aspect here is the wording of the question as well that comes into the picture. The first question had three separate questions compounded into one – “rising, fallen or remained relatively constant.” (p. 23). The second question is a leading one since a person who has responded risen would automatically answer Yes. Most survey questions should avoid compounding more than one question into a single question since this arguably leads to error in responses or tends to lead respondent to a certain answer. However, to that extent, since the audience for this survey was academics and scientists, one can expect that such an error in contemplating and answering this question did not occur or it occurred with an almost negligible amount of error.
On a personal front, I would not only accept that temperatures have risen on earth, but also that these rise in temperatures have occurred as a result of Global Warming. The prime reason for my acceptance is the fact that we see rapid geographical and climate changes around us – increasingly warmer winters, hotter summers, unseasonal or unexpectedly strong rains (or sometimes droughts). Clearly, these changes have been more profound since industrialization picked up pace, which is evident from the weather data of the last 50 years or older. Those who say that the earth is warming on its own have no good manner in which to substantiate their claim. The survey conducted by Doran and Zimmerman substantiate this point in a very big way and also tends to give us a pointer about the authenticity of papers on the subject.
In conclusion, one can understand that the academic and the scientist community clearly know that it is indeed Global Warming that is causing temperatures to rise, while acknowledging that human activities are, in a large part, responsible for this phenomenon. It is now a gigantic task cut out for universities and research institutes to rise above the hypocrisy and declare with one voice that Global Warming indeed exists and is affecting our planet. The veil of dissent that people think exists amongst scientists should be ripped out and the truth on this subject must come to the fore.
Works Cited
Doran, Peter & Zimmerman, Maggie. “Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change.” EOS Journal 90.3 (2009): 22-23. Web. 29 Jul 2016.
