Since 2014, the ongoing crisis in Ukraine has been a major topic worldwide. The war has claimed thousands of lives and has far-reaching consequences for Ukraine’s independence, Europe’s security, and global democracy. This essay examines the complicated dynamics of Ukraine's war, its roots, the current situation (as of late summer 2023), and the broader ramifications for Ukrainian independence, European security, and worldwide democracy. This essay's key focus areas are the Russian invasion's prerequisites, the current state of things in the war, and the significance of Ukraine's triumph.
Prerequisites of the Russian Invasion
The roots of the conflict in Ukraine can be traced back to centuries of complex historical ties between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine, with its rich cultural heritage and diverse ethnic makeup, has often found itself at the center of regional power struggles. Between several short periods of independence, Ukraine has been several times conquered and divided by neighboring countries, including Russia. As a result, Ukraine was a part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. A long and tangled history between the two countries seemed to take a new turn in 1991 after the collapse of the USSR, mutual recognition, border agreements, and the Budapest memorandum, with which Russia (along with the US and the UK) assured Ukraine’s security in exchange of the country giving up the third nuclear arsenal in the world. However, in 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine, annexed the Crimean Peninsula, and initiated and backed armed conflict in the Donbas region. This was a major event preceding the all-out invasion in 2022, while ethnic tensions and political instability were other causes of the conflict [1].
As the crisis has been ongoing since 2014, it has been nearly impossible to discern who was actually winning. Military war, economic war, geographical gains, and psychological gains have all been assessed differently by experts [2]. On the one hand, Russia has gained territory due to the takeover of Crimea and the full-scale invasion in 2022. On the other hand, Ukraine has achieved substantial military advancements, and Russia's economic sanctions have significantly influenced the country's economy [1].
The Russia-initiated war has severely impacted the Ukrainian people, with thousands killed and millions displaced. Moreover, the battle – regardless of how it ends – is set to have far-reaching consequences for worldwide security and democracy.
The Current State of Affairs: Who Is Winning the War in Ukraine vs Russia
As of late summer 2023, the conflict in Ukraine is still underway, and territorial control is divided among several factions. Currently, around 20% of the Ukrainian territory remains under Russian occupation [3].
However, since the autumn of 2022, Ukraine has achieved substantial military victories, including recapturing several cities and towns. Plus, the sanctions against the Russian economy have also had a considerable influence on its economy, leading to its significant decline [1]. Then, in the summer of 2023, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive operation in the South. Although the Ukrainian troops are advancing reasonably slowly, they seem to set the scene for a breakthrough during the autumn months.
International attempts and peace talks have been attempted, but no long-term solution has been found. After the annexation of Crimea and an armed conflict in Donbas, peace talks have taken place in the Normandy model, which involved Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany [1]. International actors, including the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, have also been engaged in peace negotiations to resolve the conflict. However, none of the efforts ended the conflict. With time, it became apparent that Russia had plans for a full-scale invasion long before the first peace talks even started. However, these talks allowed Ukraine to postpone the inevitable and prepare for it as well as possible.
Right now, it’s impossible to tell who is really winning the war in Ukraine. Despite heavy losses and a weakened economy, Russia still has the advantage in military equipment and personnel. That’s why Ukraine requires continued military help from other countries to defend itself against ongoing Russian aggression. The United States has offered military assistance to Ukraine, including weapons and training, while European countries have also contributed [3].
While Ukraine's independence and sovereignty are at the heart of the conflict, the fundamentals of European security intertwine with the outcome of the war. A victory for Ukraine would mean preserving its territorial integrity and safeguarding its identity as a nation. However, the war’s result will have much broader implications.
The Importance of Ukraine's Victory for Global Security and Stability
Ukraine's win in the current war is critical to European security and stability. The fact is, the war itself has already had far-reaching ramifications for European security, as Ukraine is a crucial actor in the region between Russia and Europe. In case of Ukraine's defeat, Russia will then easily and readily use it as a platform to destabilize the European Union and NATO by provoking conflicts with Poland and Baltic states (Latvia, Litva, and Estonia).
Furthermore, Ukraine's support is critical for the entire international security system based on respecting the recognized countries’ borders. Otherwise, the principle of non-use or threat of force will be no longer viable, and the risk of a larger and stronger state attacking a weaker one will increase immensely. The most prominent example here would be the probable attack of China on Taiwan, causing the USA to get involved in direct conflict with another nuclear power.
Finally, supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression with arms, not just Reddit posts, is essential for sustaining democratic norms and deterring aggression [1]. The war in Ukraine is about more than just Ukraine; it is about the entire democratic globe. Failure to help Ukraine may empower Russia and other authoritarian or dictator regimes to escalate aggression in various parts of the world.
Conclusion
The war in Ukraine is still underway, and it is impossible to say at the moment who is winning. Military war, economic war, geographical and psychological gains have all been evaluated by experts [2][4]. Most of them stress that the success of Ukraine is critical for national survival, European stability, and even global security. Also, the support of Ukraine is critical for defending democratic values and deterring possible acts of aggression in other parts of the world [1]. The crisis demands ongoing international assistance, and a long-term solution must be found to ensure regional peace and stability. However, in the name of exemplification, stability, and stronger peace, this solution must come along with Ukraine’s victory and be based on Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Thus, the United States and European countries must continue to help Ukraine in order to protect democratic values and deter Russian aggression.
The war in Ukraine is a multifaceted conflict with deep historical roots and far-reaching implications. Understanding its complexities is essential for assessing its trajectory and potential outcomes. Ukraine's victory is not merely a matter of territorial control but a symbol of the country's resilience and the defense of democratic values in the face of aggression. The world's democratic nations must stand united in their commitment to upholding the principles that Ukraine's struggle represents.
Citations:[1] https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/jeff-rich4/episodes/81--The-Ukraine-Conflict---How-to-stay-sane-when-different-narratives-of-the-war-conflict-e1thtac
[2] https://www.businessinsider.com/sitemap/html/2023-07.html
[3] https://mu.linkedin.com/posts/tony-sztypuljak-2107501_standwithukraine-activity-7037878848209731584-MA4d
[4] http://www.britishpodcasts.com/listshows.php?podcastnum=14
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